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A mixed method approach for analyzing drivers of land use land cover change in the Northwestern Ethiopian highlands

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Abstract

This study gives empirical evidence on the drivers of land use change by conducting a qualitative assessment and then using time series data to quantify the relationship between land use land cover change and factors that cause the change. Vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables were used to analyze the time series data. The findings revealed demographic and environmental factors were the primary causes of land use and land cover change. Population growth was found among the key drivers for losses of the natural vegetation on the one hand and rehabilitation of bare lands and grazing lands on the other hand. Despite its pressure on the natural vegetation, the increase in population contributes to a productive labor force for improving land management through rehabilitating degraded grazing lands, implementing soil and water conservation measures, and planting trees on degraded lands. This implies that population growth can be an opportunity or a threat for sustainable natural resources management, depending on how the available labor force is used. Climatic factors like maximum temperature and precipitation were also important causes of change in land use land cover. The study has important contributions to improving land use practices through designing appropriate land resources management policies.

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Notes

  1. Average exchange rate of Birr to USD in 2020 ( Birr 34.9505 to 1.00 USD) is considered for the conversion.

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Acknowledgements

I thank the Ethiopian Statistical Service, National Metrology Agency, and Input Supply Corporation for providing time series data regarding human and livestock population, crop productivity, precipitation, temperature, and fertilizer prices.

Funding

No funding was received for conducting this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Environment and Development Studies, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Temesgen Bogale, Shimeles Damene & Aseffa Seyoum

  2. International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, Tottori, 680-0001, Japan

    Nigussie Haregeweyn

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  1. Temesgen Bogale
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  2. Shimeles Damene
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  3. Aseffa Seyoum
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  4. Nigussie Haregeweyn
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Contributions

1) Temesgen Bogale has substantial contributions to the conception and design, acquisition of data, or analysis and interpretation of data; drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content; and final approval of the version to be submitted for publication. 2) Dr. Shimeles Damene has substantial contributions to the conception and design, acquisition of data, or analysis and interpretation of data; drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content; and final approval of the version to be submitted for publication. 3) Dr. Aseffa Seyoum has substantial contributions to the conception and design, acquisition of data, or analysis and interpretation of data; drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content; and final approval of the version to be submitted for publication. 4) Professor Nigusie Haregewn has substantial contributions to the conception and design, acquisition of data, or analysis and interpretation of data; drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content; and final approval of the version to be submitted for publication.

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Correspondence to Temesgen Bogale.

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Highlights

• The growing labor force should be used for improving land management practices.

• The tonguey system of shifting cultivation practice needs to be scaled up.

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Bogale, T., Damene, S., Seyoum, A. et al. A mixed method approach for analyzing drivers of land use land cover change in the Northwestern Ethiopian highlands. Environ Monit Assess 196, 1213 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13342-2

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