Mining Sector Premium Trends and Outlook

The irrational exuberance is fading & that's a good thing. Retail hype is moving on, battery metal ETFs are quiet, & even the Twitter geologists have slowed down. However, the spotlight is still (rightfully) on mining. This sector has global attention. The challenge now is to convert that attention into capital deployed, tonnes produced, and supply chains built. Here’s how I think 2026 will actually play out: 🔹 Copper will be King: new money, new buyers, new urgency, but short supply. 🔹 Project finance is back to fundamentals: throughput, margin, timeline. Supply security is not a substitute for cash flow. 🔹 Brownfield projects are getting capital first: permitted power, roads, and infrastructure matter more than ever. Local support isn’t optional. 🔹 Middle East capital continues to be very active: they are not window shopping; they are wiring. 🔹 The US government is building a real critical minerals portfolio: It’s not always predictable, but it’s moving capital in ways few thought possible. Programs that didn’t exist three years ago are now driving entire project pipelines. 🔹 OEMs are negotiating with real discipline: No more offtake for headlines; now it’s pricing structure, timelines, and delivery risk. 🔹 2021 PEAs are being rewritten quietly: Inflation caught up to the models. Strip ratios widen, capex assumptions break, and IRRs settle back to earth. 🔹 Metallurgy will force multiple strategy resets: Recovery is expensive. Multi-step / unproven flowsheets are hard to fund... particularly when you are, say, pulling from the bottom of the ocean... 🔹 Recycling will see high-profile failures and real consolidation. The players with feedstock and process control will acquire the rest. Scrap supply is not infinite. 🔹 A few gold juniors who rebranded as [name your sexy metal] plays will suddenly be chasing gold again: $4,500 gold is very persuasive. Mining doesn’t need more headlines. It needs more executed term sheets, permitted sites, and tonnes on ships. The capital is out there & the spotlight is still on. 2025 was about the world waking up to the critical mineral challenge facing us. 2026 is about real projects attracting real capital and actually getting developed. #CriticalMinerals #MiningFinance #ProjectDelivery #UnitEconomics #EnergyTransition #CapitalDiscipline

Mining companies use only a fraction of their data. Less than 1% according to McKinsey's analysis, which quantifies at $370 billion annually, or 17% of the global mining industry's cost base. This represents one of the most extraordinary value creation opportunities I've seen in years. While most industries fight over marginal gains, mining sits on transformational improvements that are entirely achievable with proven technology. Mining companies have already built the infrastructure, deployed the sensors, and collected the data. The hard work is done. The foundation exists. Now it's simply about connecting these assets intelligently to unlock value that's already been created but not yet captured. The real problem is that the industry has convinced itself that it is somehow uniquely complex and unsuitable for digital transformation. Yes, underground operations face harsh conditions. Equipment gets covered in dust and operates in extreme temperatures. Networks struggle with signal penetration through rock. But aerospace companies manage to stream data from Mars. Formula 1 teams process thousands of telemetry points in real-time while cars travel at 300km/h. Mining's challenges are real but hardly insurmountable. The integration complexity actually works in our favor. Mining operations span geological data, drilling parameters, processing chemistry, equipment telemetry, and market dynamics. Each domain requires specialized expertise. Traditional software struggles with these multivariable relationships. But this complexity creates opportunity. Companies that successfully integrate these data streams achieve significant throughput improvements and recovery gains. For a large copper mine, that translates to millions in additional revenue. The skills gap represents another opportunity. The workforce is aging rapidly. But this creates space for technology-driven approaches that augment rather than replace human expertise. Predictive maintenance reduces the need for mechanical troubleshooting. AI-powered analysis handles data complexity that overwhelms human operators. The result? More engaging work that attracts talent previously dismissive of mining careers. Even the organizational structure becomes advantageous when properly leveraged. Yes, departmental silos exist. But mining's clear operational stages from exploration through processing create natural points for targeted intervention. Each failure point in the data value chain represents a specific market opportunity. Specialized solutions for ore characterization, predictive maintenance, or process optimization can deliver immediate value without requiring enterprise-wide transformation. At IRH, we see this as mining's renaissance moment. By integrating modern technologies across the value chain, we're unleashing potential. Every sensor becomes an opportunity for optimization. Every data point contributes to collective intelligence. Every operational decision gets progressively smarter.

After fifteen years working as a mediator, with a heavy focus on community disputes in mining, here is what has changed in the last 24 months. Social licence to operate has moved out of the comms department. It now sits squarely inside project viability. Financing decisions. Insurance underwriting. Permitting timelines. Litigation exposure. Whether the project gets built at all. Industry analysts estimate that projects without credible social performance now face cost-of-capital increases of up to 300 basis points. The disputes themselves have also changed shape. They are less about compensation and more about identity, water, heritage, and historical memory. FPIC has shifted into a hard legal and reputational constraint, especially for critical minerals. Trust in EIAs, consultants, and political actors is in measurable decline. I just published a long-form analysis of the 8 trends reshaping mining social performance in 2026. The piece is written for executives, ESG professionals, community relations practitioners, and mediators working at the boundary between corporate strategy and community reality. What trends are you seeing on the projects you work on? I am especially curious about lithium, nickel, and rare earths, where the legitimacy paradox is sharpest right now. #MiningIndustry #SocialLicenseToOperate #ESG #FPIC #CriticalMinerals #CommunityMediation

Mining, Technology & Training The mining sector has always been fertile ground for technological adoption—optimising activities from exploration to production. Over my 28+ year career, I’ve witnessed breakthroughs that transformed how we extract value from the earth. Some innovations exceeded expectations, while others fell short of ROI. A quick snapshot of the journey includes, but is not limited to: • 2000–2009: Digitising pits & plants • 2010–2016: Autonomy + remote operations (e.g., driverless haul trucks) • 2017–2019: Advanced analytics, ore sorting, safer tailings management • 2020–2022: Electrification & integrated data systems • 2023–Present: AI copilots, digital twins, and low-impact recovery methods With every leap, the sophistication of machinery has demanded equally skilled people. Today, predictive maintenance, AI-assisted safety systems, and machine learning are helping reduce downtime and ensure incident-free operations. The real game-changer? Firms that pair state-of-the-art machinery with continuous workforce upskilling. Imagine turning tailings into refined minerals in record time—boosting both operational efficiency and investor returns. For both new entrants and seasoned professionals, the message is clear: keep learning, keep adapting. The future of mining will belong to those who can harness technology and human expertise in tandem. Your thoughts and insights are welcome—let’s grow together. #mining #technology #training 

China's Global Mining Blitz: A Geopolitical Power Play #Beijing is accelerating its acquisition of #mines and #mineralresources worldwide, reaching a record pace. This investment frenzy is fueled by a growing need for #rawmaterials and the fear that geopolitical tensions could jeopardize access to low-cost imports. According to FT data, based on S&P and Mergermarket figures, #Chinese transactions in the mining sector valued over $100 million reached their highest peak since 2013 last year. This trend is further confirmed by the Griffith Asia Institute, which identified 2023 as the most intense year for Chinese overseas investments in the mining and construction sectors, also since 2013. The acquisition spree shows no signs of slowing down. Just this year, Chinese giant Zijin Mining announced its intention to acquire a gold mine in #Kazakhstan for a staggering $1.2 billion. And in April, the Chinese Baiyin Nonferrous Group shelled out $420 million for Mineracao Vale Verde, a #Brazilian company specializing in #copper and #gold extraction. A desperate need for resources There are two main drivers behind this aggressive activity. On one hand, China has an insatiable hunger for natural resources to fuel its massive #manufacturing engine and sustain economic growth. On the other, escalating #tariff #wars and geopolitical complexities have created unprecedented urgency. Beijing fears that access to essential and low-cost raw materials could be compromised, pushing it to accumulate as many reserves as possible while the situation allows. Chinese companies have become much more active over the past 12 months, convinced they have a short-term window of opportunity. They're trying to close as many deals as possible before the situation becomes more difficult due to geopolitics. In essence, the acceleration of #Chinese #investments in the global mining sector isn't just an economic move; it's a clear #defensive #strategy in an increasingly uncertain and fragmented international landscape, where access to resources has become a key element of #nationalsecurity. #ExtremaRatio

Global gold production continues to consolidate around a handful of dominant jurisdictions, but the real story sits beneath the rankings. This latest infographic highlights the Top 10 gold producing regions by 2024 estimated mine output, and the numbers reveal more than just tonnes. They reflect geology, investment cycles, political strategy and the evolving direction of the global mining sector. China retains the number one position, supported by a large domestic industry and consistent state-backed development. Russia and Australia remain close behind, demonstrating the strength of established gold provinces and the scale that long-term infrastructure investment can deliver. Canada and the United States round out the traditional Tier 1 mining jurisdictions, where stable regulation and access to capital continue to underpin production. What stands out is the growing presence of emerging and frontier regions. Ghana maintains its position as a cornerstone of West African gold output, while Mexico reinforces Latin America’s contribution through a mix of underground and open pit operations. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan continue to rise as Central Asian producers, supported by large-scale deposits and ongoing investment into modern mining methods. Indonesia deserves particular attention. While ranked tenth by total output in this dataset, its influence on global gold supply is outsized thanks to the world-class #Grasberg operation. Grasberg is not only one of the largest gold deposits globally, it represents a shift toward large-scale underground block cave mining following decades of open pit production. Its scale, copper by-product credits and continued investment into underground infrastructure position Indonesia as a long-term powerhouse within the gold sector, not just a mid-table producer. From a broader industry perspective, this distribution highlights three key trends. First, production leadership is becoming more geographically diverse, reducing reliance on a single dominant region. Second, established mining nations are balancing mature operations with new project pipelines to sustain output. Third, emerging producers are gaining momentum as exploration success meets improving infrastructure and international investment. For those of us working across mining, workforce planning and project delivery, understanding where production is concentrated matters. Capital flows toward production hubs. Gold remains one of the few commodities that bridges traditional mining and global economic sentiment. Whether driven by investment demand, currency hedging or industrial use, its production footprint offers a clear lens into where the sector is heading next. Click the 🔔 on my profile to follow me for more global mining insights. #Mining #GoldMining #GlobalMining #Resources #MiningIndustry #Commodities #MiningCareers #MartynJHill

Key comminution trends that will decide whether your mine controls energy costs or loses profitability. With energy costs rising and ore grades declining, the old approach of grinding everything to dust and hoping for the best is quickly turning into a financial liability. Some mines are already optimizing their circuits and slashing power costs.   Others will soon realize the price of inefficiency is about to go up. Let’s break down key trends:   1. Pre-concentration & coarse particle flotation. Mines have long crushed everything, wasting energy on low-value material. New sorting tech removes waste upfront, rejecting 30% of uneconomic ore before milling. The result? Lower energy use, higher throughput—without costly expansions. 2. High-intensity blasting. Smarter blasting beats inefficient grinding. Some mines boost throughput 28% with high-intensity blasting. Break the ore properly at the start = less grinding = lower energy costs. Comminution starts in the pit, not the plant. 3. Dry grinding. Comminution is one of the largest water consumers in mining. Yet few talk about how grinding circuits contribute to this problem. Emerging solutions like HPGR (high-pressure grinding rolls), VRM (vertical roller mill) and air classification are cutting water use while maintaining high recovery rates. 4. The end of one-size-fits-all circuits. The traditional SAG-ball mill-cyclone circuit has been the industry standard for decades. But as energy prices skyrocket, mines are rethinking flowsheets and using: - HPGR-ball mill combinations for better energy efficiency  - Single-stage AG/SAG circuits with pre-crushing to simplify flowsheets  - Autogenous & pebble milling to reduce reliance on grinding media The goal? Extracting maximum value at the lowest possible energy input. 5. AI & real-time process optimization: no more guesswork Comminution is moving from gut feeling to AI-driven control. AI-driven process control systems are now: - Adjusting feed rates, mill speeds, and power inputs in real-time - Eliminating inefficiencies and keeping operations at peak performance - Maximizing throughput without human error In 5 years, top operators will let AI optimize comminution automatically.   6. Grade engineering. Instead of grinding everything, Grade Engineering® optimizes ore processing by: • Blasting for natural size separation • Sorting by actual grade, not assumptions • Using sensor-based bulk sorting to feed only valuable ore to the mill The result? Higher recovery, lower energy use, better margins.   Mines that optimize comminution will be keeping costs low and margins high. Mines ignoring it will be fighting rising energy costs with circuits designed for a past economic reality.   Process smarter – or pay the price for inefficiency.   And it all starts with understanding your ore.   Real-time ore hardness data impacts blasting strategies, mill performance, and overall process efficiency. Want better comminution data? Let’s talk.

I’m not here to make a list of predictions for 2025. Instead, I want to share something way more useful. Why no predictions? Antimony. Who predicted its big rise last year? (I checked. Couldn't find anyone. Not even a critical metals analyst!) But here’s the thing: it doesn’t matter. Antimony’s surprise run taught us the real value is: - Understanding the playing field (like China’s control of critical minerals) - Spotting the catalyst early (export restrictions)? - Taking action when everyone else is working on background research. So, looking ahead, here are three big trends I’m keeping an eye on: 1. Gold Production is Peaking Gold prices jumped 30% last year, but production didn’t follow. Big projects like IAMGOLD’s Côté Gold Mine in Ontario are impressive (expected to hit 495,000 ounces/year at peak). But even with new projects, global gold production is expected to drop by 3% per year through the rest of this decade. This directly ties into the next big trend… 2. Big Gold is Spending Big Every investor wants growth, including those in gold mining. To keep up, major gold companies will need to buy more mines, companies, and large projects. The reality is, there aren’t many other ways to grow. We’ll also see more joint ventures and investments in juniors. Why? Cash flows are strong, and there aren’t enough opportunities to spend that cash—so it’ll flow into acquisitions and partnerships. Mergers and acquisitions happen in both bull and bear markets, but these conditions will keep activity moving upward. 3. Juniors are Making a Slow Comeback The junior mining sector is starting to bounce back. In October, junior and intermediate financing hit $1.61 billion—the highest level in two years. Drilling activity is also rising, with the number of reported drill holes up 40% from recent lows. That said, activity is still about 20% below 2022 levels—but the decline has slowed, and things are improving. I’m sure there are many quotes from generals about knowing the battlefield before engaging, but you get the point. So, while 2025 may not bring dramatic predictions, the big moves will likely come from unexpected opportunities. With these trends as the backdrop, it’s clear the industry is gearing up for some interesting times.

The 15-year story of how the mining sector lost institutional capital and never fully got it back contextualizes the current investment landscape. In 2012, global exploration peaked at US$21.5bn and then dropped 68% to US$6.89bn by 2016 due to commodity price collapse. Between 2015 and 2021, the adoption of ESG exclusions and responsible investment policies excluded billions in capital from extractive industries, even as commodity prices began to recover. Notably, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund (GPFG) excluded +180 companies including Glencore and Anglo American. At the same time, capital consolidation raised minimum investment sizes. Since 2015, the number of fund managers in the U.S. has fallen 10% while fund assets grew +100% to $39.2tn. A $50bn fund cannot meaningfully deploy capital into a $20m company. The investment is too small to impact returns and too operationally intensive to monitor. Exploration and mid-tier companies were mechanically excluded from these pools of capital. Today, critical minerals supply competition among the largest economies has mobilized billions. The U.S. set aside $10bn under Project Vault, the EU set aside EUR 3bn under RESource EU, and Chinese policy banks issued $25bn in mining loans in H1 2025. Orion and Appian both raised new +$1bn funds. Mining capital is back. Right? Beyond the headlines, the new capital inflows are more selective than ever. Geopolitical capital favors existing production to meet current supply needs and asset managers prefer larger transactions. Fewer, higher value, assets are attracting the majority of the capital. In 2025, mining M&A deal volume dropped 19% while deal value doubled. Between 2020 and 2025 deal volume dropped 18% while deal value grew +200% (+48% excluding the Anglo-Teck merger). In contrast, exploration and development stages of the mining value chain remain undercapitalized. Global exploration budgets declined for the 3rd consecutive year and still sit 42% below the 2012 peak. In the early 2000's, 49% of mining sector expenditure went towards grassroots exploration (new mine discoveries), today it is 21%. This capital pool is shrinking. Simply put, billions of dollars are being mobilized today, but that capital is chasing discoveries that were funded a decade ago. Unless you hold near production or producing assets, none of that capital will reach you. The question remains: Who will fund the discoveries the market will need a decade from now? To remain competitive, commodity traders and royalty firms have stepped into development stage projects offering prepayments, debt, and equity linked instruments. To de-risk their pipeline, South Africa allocated $100m in institutional capital from the Treasury and the Public Investment Corporation across two early stage mining funds. In this new landscape, players who fund earlier stages may capture value from later stage capital flows; but players who don't are excluded as capital chases mature assets.