Revenue sharing recipients are required by the collective bargaining agreement to spend that money to improve their on-field product. The CBA intentionally leaves the means very open-ended, however, so there’s no requirement it needs to be directly spent on player payroll. Spending on the front office, coaching, scouting, analytics, and player development all contribute to the on-field product and are appropriate means of using revenue sharing money.
It’s not clear precisely why the union withdrew the grievance against the Rays, though they evidently did so quietly nearly a year ago. However, it’s potentially not a coincidence that the decision came a few months after former owner Stu Sternberg finalized a sale of the franchise to Patrick Zalupski. The Rays subsequently garnered approval from Hillsborough County and the City of Tampa for a new stadium to open in 2029.
Zalupski claimed that the new stadium will eventually allow the Rays to run a payroll in the upper half to potentially top third of MLB. Of course, it remains to be seen whether that’ll eventually come to fruition. MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen calculates the Rays’ end of season LRD and competitive balance tax payrolls at $98.41MM and $116.35MM, respectively. They’re 26th in actual payroll and 27th in terms of luxury tax spending.
The limitations didn’t prevent the front office from putting together the best team in the American League. The Rays won 98 regular season games and have gone 7-2 to knock off the Yankees and Guardians en route to the third pennant in franchise history. They’re opening the World Series in Milwaukee tonight.
That’s all incidental to the withdrawal of the grievance that happened last winter. A Rays-Brewers World Series matchup coming at the end of the CBA term has nevertheless led to plenty of discussion about the sport’s competitive balance questions. (MLBTR’s podcast this week addressed the topic of whether this field has any bearing on the league’s push for a salary cap.) This afternoon, Evan Drellich and Eno Sarris of The Athletic ran a column examining MLB’s parity/payroll discrepancy compared to the NBA and NFL, both of which have cap/floor systems. That’s worth a full read for those interested in the topic.
There’ll be plenty of back and forth between the league and union over the coming months. There’s essentially no chance of a new agreement before the current CBA expires at end of day on December 1, at which point MLB will immediately implement a lockout.
Commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer unsurprisingly suggested this evening there’s also no real possibility of a temporary extension of the current agreement to stave off the lockout (link via Evan Drellich of The Athletic). Manfred and Meyer each pointed to the other side wanting changes to the current system — though it’s true that neither the league nor union is advocating for the status quo. MLB is seeking the more radical overhaul of the system in its cap/floor push. The PA is pushing for a significant increase to the luxury tax thresholds and what’s essentially a soft floor in the form of penalties for teams that run CBT payrolls south of $150MM.
]]>Guaranteed Contracts
- Aaron Judge, OF: $200MM through 2031
- Max Fried, SP: $174MM through 2032
- Cody Bellinger, OF: $110MM through 2030 (can opt out after 2027 and 2028 seasons)
- Gerrit Cole, SP: $72MM through 2028
- Carlos Rodon, SP: $54MM through 2028
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $35MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins covering $20MM of remaining salary)
- Ryan McMahon, 3B: $16MM through 2027
2027 guarantees: $205.5MM
Total future commitments: $661MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Clarke Schmidt (5.148): $4.5MM
- Luis García Jr. (5.142): $11MM
- Ryan Weathers (4.066): $3.1MM
- Fernando Cruz (4.035): $2.3MM
- José Caballero (3.170): $3.7MM
- Anthony Volpe (3.142): $4MM
- Luis Gil (3.119): $2.3MM
- Heliot Ramos (3.103): $3.2MM
- Austin Wells (3.031): $2.6MM
- Non-tender candidates: Cruz, Ramos
Free Agents
- David Bednar, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Blackburn, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber, Tim Hill, Amed Rosario, Michael Fulmer
The 2025 season saw the Yankees win 94 games, defeat the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, and lose to the AL East champion Blue Jays in the ALDS. 2026 was almost a case of deja vu, as this year’s Bronx Bombers won 93 games, again topped Boston in the ALWCS, and then lost to the AL East champion Rays in the ALDS.
The chief difference between the two seasons was Aaron Judge was limited to only 66 games this year. After suffering a stress fracture in his right ribcage on April 26, Judge initially seemed fine playing through the pain, but he had only a .528 OPS over his last 51 plate appearances before he was finally placed on the 10-day injured list on June 2. Judge didn’t return until September 8, and he then delivered only a .513 OPS in 24 PA over seven games before sustaining a right calf strain. This final injury sidelined Judge for the rest of the regular season and the entire postseason.
Even with these two cold stretches, Judge still hit .241/.360/.511 with 18 homers over 285 total PA, and his 140 wRC+ ranked 13th in baseball among players with at least 250 trips to the plate. The glass half-full view is simple — if Judge had been healthy, maybe that alone might’ve been enough to get the Yankees though a watered-down American League and at least back to the World Series.
The more pessimistic view of the 2026 campaign is also straight-forward. Judge’s absence exposed the faults in the team’s lineup, as New York’s offense vanished almost the moment Judge hit the IL. The Yankees’ 116 team wRC+ ranked second in the league through May 31, but from June 1 until season’s end, only five teams produced less than New York’s 93 wRC+.
[restrict]
For the year as a whole, the Yankees finished second in the majors in home runs, sixth in stolen bases, and fifth in walk rate. Despite that high walk rate, New York was still 24th in team OBP (.311), as the club’s 26th-ranked .235 batting average and 24.7% strikeout rate were both in the bottom five of all teams. Simply put, if the Bronx Bombers weren’t hitting any bombs over the outfield wall, the offense had no secondary approach to scoring runs.
Ben Rice has a healthy amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but Rice was the only lineup regular who had a truly great year at the plate. Cody Bellinger and Luis Garcia Jr. provided only okay production for the Yankees in 2026, so a lot more will be expected next year. Shortstop George Lombard Jr. and outfielder Spencer Jones performed respectably well in their first MLB seasons, and the Yankees now hope the two former top prospects take another step forward in everyday roles.
The early plan is for Jones to slide into the center field position in place of Trent Grisham, who likely won’t be re-signed after an underwhelming year. Jones didn’t fare well defensively in center so Bellinger might also get a good amount of time up the middle, but whatever the alignment, Jones, Bellinger, and Judge are lined up as the starting outfield. Utilityman Jose Caballero, Heliot Ramos, Jasson Dominguez, and maybe Giancarlo Stanton will provide backup, but there’s no guarantee any of these depth options will return.
Caballero will likely be retained due to his speed and versatility, but he doesn’t provide much at the plate. Ramos had only a .688 OPS after being acquired from the Giants at the trade deadline, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he was traded or even non-tendered if the Yankees think they can find a better part-time outfielder elsewhere. Dominguez had a -0.2 fWAR over 57 games and 222 PA, and could be a trade candidate (albeit in sell-low fashion) as his once sky-high prospect stock has continued to dim.
Stanton’s 2026 season was limited to 24 regular-season games and two pinch-hit at-bats in the playoffs, as injuries to both calves basically made it a lost season for the veteran slugger. Stanton is entering the final guaranteed season of the 13-year, $325MM extension he signed with the Marlins in November 2014, and the Marlins are responsible for $20MM of the $35MM still owed on that contract.
As I explored in another post earlier this month, $15MM could be a small enough number for New York to consider eating, as in simply releasing Stanton. The Yankees would have to eat a lot of that money anyway to facilitate a trade, and Stanton might not even approve a deal given the no-trade clause in his contract. Parting ways with Stanton opens up a 26-man roster spot for a player with defensive value, and it creates more room for the Yankees to rotate multiple players (like Judge) into the DH spot for partial rest days.
Garcia might be the key figure in the Stanton decision, as manager Aaron Boone floated the idea of Garcia being used as a second baseman next season. If Garcia is able to capably play second base, that answers both the Yankees’ vacancy at the keystone and removes another name from the first base/DH mix, leaving Rice as the everyday first baseman and Stanton as the designated hitter.
The issue, of course, is that Garcia was a dreadful defensive second baseman during his time in Washington, which is what prompted the Nationals to make him a full-time first baseman heading into 2026. The position switch may well have contributed to Garcia’s big improvement as a hitter, so the Yankees may not want to risk hurting his bat by trying to shoehorn Garcia back into a second base role. Even if Garcia is passably good at second base, “passable” might not be enough for a team that has a number of defensive questions.
The middle-ground answer could be to wait until Spring Training to give Garcia some reps at second base. If he can handle the position well, New York can roll with Garcia at the keystone and then perhaps explore a reunion with Paul Goldschmidt as further 1B/DH depth. If Garcia is still struggling defensively, the Yankees can pencil Garcia and Rice into the first base and DH positions, with Stanton, a re-signed Goldschmidt, or another right-handed bat as depth in those two spots.
Waiting until Spring Training to decide on how to approach two or three positions might sound risky, but the impending lockout is going to greatly alter the offseason calendar. The Yankees would obviously prefer to have as few lingering questions as possible whenever the lockout eventually ends and the transactions frenzy begins, but that depends on how many moves the club is able to make before December 1.
New York’s second base spot is considered an open position because of the expectation that Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be let go in free agency, probably without even a qualifying offer. Chisholm posted 3.5 fWAR and 41 stolen bases, but a big power dropoff led to a 98 wRC+ from his 19 homers and .231/.312/.399 slash line over 532 PA. The two-time All-Star also had the highest strikeout rate (29.5%) of any Yankee with at least 290 plate appearances.
Third base is another problem area. MLBTR’s AJ Eustace recently observed that the idea of the Yankees eating Stanton’s $15MM salary is complicated by the fact that they might also consider releasing Ryan McMahon, who is owed $16MM in the final year of his deal. McMahon generated only 0.5 fWAR over 124 games and 360 PA in 2026, as his lack of offense was compounded by surprisingly middling glovework for a player who has been one of the game’s better defenders.
Acquiring a reliable everyday infielder for either second or third base would add a lot of stability to the infield as a whole, particularly since Lombard is still unproven at the big league level. Caballero provides utility infield depth and Anthony Volpe is still around as a potential platoon candidate for second or third base, now that New York has moved him off shortstop. The Bombers haven’t given up on Volpe, but his continued lack of offense makes him hard to trust as any kind of reliable lineup regular.
Teruaki Sato isn’t proven in the majors given that he has spent his whole career in Japan, but the Yankees reportedly have interest in the slugging third baseman/outfielder as he prepares to be posted for MLB teams this winter. Brandon Lowe’s left-handed bat could do some real damage to the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, though Lowe is another strikeout-prone player. Luis Arraez is the opposite, as a second base option with little power but a big help for a club looking to boost its average and contact numbers.
This trio are probably the best everyday options among the available free agent second and third basemen, though J.P. Crawford stands out as an intriguing possibility since the Yankees or other teams could toggle him between both positions. Any number of possibilities exist on the trade front, and the Yankees have the type of pitching depth that can get the ball rolling on a lot of deals.
Austin Wells’ .186/.292/.332 slash line and 14 home runs over 388 PA resulted in an ugly 77 wRC+, though Wells hit considerably better over the final two months of the season. This late-season surge and Wells’ strong defense might’ve been enough to retain his starting job, but New York could conceivably look to flip Wells in a trade and land another everyday catcher. Free agents Ryan Jeffers and Tyler Stephenson were both connected to the Yankees in rumors around the trade deadline, though Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reported in September that the Yanks were never really interested in Stephenson because of his poor framing. Jeffers could still be a possibility and the club figures to at least check in on potential trade candidates like Hunter Goodman and Shea Langeliers.
As usual, the Bombers have the financial flexibility to explore all free agent options, and to consider adding big contracts in trades. MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker indicates that New York already has over $258.2MM committed to its 2027 payroll, with a Competitive Balance Tax number of just over $284MM. The CBT tiers for 2027 won’t be known until a new collective bargaining agreement is in place, but since the Yankees have exceeded all four penalty tiers in each of the last four seasons, the luxury tax won’t be much of an obstacle.
Despite their offensive struggles, the Yankees were carried to the playoffs by their excellent pitching, and perhaps the game’s best rotation. Cam Schlittler’s first full Major League season will probably result in the AL Cy Young Award. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon both looked terrific when healthy, though injuries limited the two southpaws to 36 combined starts (Fried 112 2/3 IP, Rodon 84 1/3 IP). Gerrit Cole was a little homer-prone but otherwise solid over 127 innings after the righty missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Will Warren and Ryan Weathers pitched well and were unsung heroes in covering a lot of innings in the wake of all these injuries.
Elmer Rodriguez chipped in with six starts, though the top prospect posted a 5.40 ERA in his first 26 2/3 innings in the Show. Luis Gil had a 4.61 ERA in 27 1/3 innings and spent most of the season injured or in the minors, but he did well in a small sample of relief appearances after returning to the majors in late August. Clarke Schmidt spent most of the year rehabbing from his June 2025 Tommy John procedure, but was able to make one relief appearance for the Yankees in September. Carlos Lagrange is in line to make his MLB debut in 2027, and Lagrange is one of many interesting young arms in the Yankees’ pitching-heavy farm system.
Schlittler, Cole, Rodon, and Fried aren’t going anywhere, and Rodriguez is probably untouchable outside of offers for a true premium talent. Any other starter could feasibly be on the table in trade negotiations, and Warren would have the most value given his two seasons of good results and four remaining years of team control.
It’s probably safe to assume the Yankees will dip into their pitching depth to some extent this winter, but naturally the team will prefer to move minor league arms who are further away from the big leagues. Warren may be a little overqualified as a fifth starter and Weathers a luxury as a virtual sixth starter, but given the injury histories of Cole and Rodon (and Fried’s issues this year in recovering from a bone bruise in his throwing elbow), New York surely values having as many viable rotation arms as possible.
Breaking some of the younger starters into the majors as relief pitchers might also help fill some holes in a bullpen that could be ravaged by free agency. David Bednar, Paul Blackburn, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber, and Tim Hill are all set to hit the open market, and Fernando Cruz is a potential non-tender candidate given the partial UCL tear in his right elbow. The 2026 pen wasn’t far behind the rotation in terms of overall effectiveness, so restocking the relief corps will be an offseason priority.
Re-signing Bednar is the most obvious step towards a reload. Bednar’s excellent performance over his 15 months in the pinstripes indicates that he can handle the pressure of closing in the Bronx, and he figures to naturally have some interest in returning to pitch for a consistent contender. This probably doesn’t mean Bednar will accept much or any of a hometown discount, since the 32-year-old is surely looking to cash in as one of the best available relievers in this year’s free agent class.
The Yankees reportedly made a big push for Adrian Morejon at this year’s trade deadline, and Morejon figures to be on the radar again now that he’ll be hitting the open market. Morejon has primarily been a set-up man but could be elevated to closer by any team that signs him this winter. If the Yankees wanted to be bold, they could splurge on both Bednar and Morejon, and this duo in combination with Brent Headrick would form such a fearsome late-game trio.
Two big expenditures in the pen would probably mean that the rest of the relief corps would be filled out by internal candidates or lower-cost veterans, as the Yankees have shown a knack for turning unheralded pitchers into quality arms. Instead of re-signing Paul Blackburn, for instance, New York would seek out the “next” Blackburn in a hidden-gem type of pickup.
Pitching coach Matt Blake has been a key figure in this pitching development success, and he’ll be returning on a new contract. This brings the band back together, since Boone is returning and GM Brian Cashman has been signed to yet another contract extension.
The Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992, and have missed the postseason only five times in Cashman’s 29 seasons as general manager. By the Bombers’ own high standards, “only” two World Series appearances in the last 23 years (and one championship in 2009) counts as a disappointment, and a sizeable number of Bronx fans have been calling for a change in at least one of the dugout or the front office.
While changes aren’t yet happening, Cashman has to figure out a way to maximize this core group of talent. Maybe that means doubling down on the run prevention and adding some top-line defenders to help the pitching staff, or diversifying the offense with some contact-hitting or speedier players. The formula of hitting a couple of homers and hoping that the pitching staff can entirely lock down opponents hasn’t been working come October, and it will probably take more than just a healthy Judge to put the Yankees over the top.
]]>This part of the calendar is a big time for roster moves of this nature. After the World Series, eligible players become free agents but also the injured list goes away. Most teams have a handful of players on the 60-day IL who either need to be reinstated to the 40-man or bumped off. Players eligible for the Rule 5 draft also need roster spots in November if the club wants to protect them from selection. With all those moving parts, many fringe players will be squeezed off roster spots in the coming weeks.
Seabold, 31 in January, was acquired from the Blue Jays in a June trade. That didn’t work out for the Royals. Seabold allowed five earned runs in five innings before hitting the IL with a lat strain. He started a rehab assignment in September but was still on the IL at season’s end. He has a previous career outright, which gave him the right to elect free agency this time.
McGee, 29 in December, was acquired from the Brewers in a July trade. Kansas City shuttled him between Triple-A and the majors the rest of the way. At the big league level, he tossed 9 1/3 innings, allowing nine earned runs. Like Seabold, he has a previous career outright, which gave him the right to elect free agency.
Lange, 31, was signed as a free agent in November of last year. He had some good seasons with the Tigers but Detroit cut him loose after shoulder surgery wiped out most of his 2024 and 2025 seasons. The Royals were looking for a bounceback but didn’t get it. Lange tossed 60 innings for Kansas City this year but with a grisly 6.75 earned run average. Since he has at least three years of service time, he has the right to elect free agency.
Marsh, 29 in May, has spent his entire professional career with the Royals thus far. Kansas City drafted him in 2019. He gave them 203 1/3 innings with a 4.96 ERA over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He has unfortunately not been a factor since then. Shoulder issues kept him on the injured list throughout 2025 and he eventually underwent labrum surgery in November of that year. He spent all of 2026 rehabbing and hasn’t pitched in official game action in two years. Like Lange, he has at least three years of service and is eligible for free agency.
Black, 27 in December, was acquired from the Giants in a trade in November of last year. The Royals shuttled him between Triple-A and the big leagues this year. He logged 31 1/3 innings in the majors with a 4.31 ERA but was lucky that number wasn’t higher. He only struck out 13.4% of batters faced and actually gave out walks at a higher clip of 14.1%. The ERA would have been higher if not for a fortunate .253 batting average on balls in play and 82.6% strand rate. His 6.48 FIP and 5.82 SIERA suggest he deserved far worse.
Unlike the others, Black does not have the right to elect free agency. This is his first career outright and his service clock is under three years. He also isn’t eligible for seven-year minor league free agency because he has only participated in five minor league seasons.
The Royals can keep him in a non-roster capacity and try to get him back on track. He was one of the top ten prospects in the Giants’ system a few years ago. Over 2022 and 2023, he threw 235 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.48 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. But in 265 2/3 minor league innings since then, he has a 5.45 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate. He has a 5.53 ERA in his big league career.
Photo courtesy of Denny Medley, Imagn Images
]]>Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you’ve all had a good week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let’s get it going
BB
- Do you think Sato, Ralphy Velazquez, or Emmanuel Rodriquez will be valuable in 2027?
Anthony Franco
- I think Ralphy will be, more skeptical on the other two
Attic Wombat
- I read that there might be a free agent signing frenzy before the lockout deadline. Can you imagine any possible resolution that could make jumping in early a bad move?
Breaker
- What are the latest rumors about the lockout? Is there any kind of a frame work or anything in place.
SandyG
- Hey Anthony, Thanks for the chat! Do you believe the conventional wisdom that we will see a pre-lockout frenzy of free agent signings? And where do you predict Skubal will sign?
Anthony Franco
- There’ll be a lockout, there’s not going to be any kind of framework in place until late February or early March in the best case scenario. Neither side has much incentive to move off their asks until there’s an actual threat of losing games
- I do expect a frenzy, though not to the same extent as ’21 because this free agent class isn’t good. I don’t really expect the CBA structure to immediately make any of the November free agent/trade activity look bad
- The only concern I could really see is that a team signs Skubal for like $50MM+ annually and then the cap comes along and they have to find other ways to cut spending to comply, but there’d be at least a one- or two-year grace period for the huge spenders to get under anyway
Sandy at 90
- Chances Skubal signs with LAD before lockout on Dec 1.
Anthony Franco
- As for Skubal, I guess right now I’d lean Mets but do expect him to sign pre-lockout and obviously wouldn’t be surprised if he stays in LA
Rusty Shackleford
- Will Warren seems prime trade bait to me. Young controllable pitcher for young controllable bat. Where is a good destination?
-
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St. Louis ranked 16th in scoring this past season. The club finished in the bottom five in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The Cardinals were similarly underwhelming on offense in 2025, ranking in the bottom 10 in those three metrics.
Brown was hired heading into the 2025 campaign. He’s had several big-league stops along the way. After a decade coaching in the minors, Brown joined the Dodgers as an assistant hitting coach in 2018. He moved on to the Marlins in 2023 as their top hitting coach. Brown also had a brief stop in Seattle before coming to St. Louis.
Woo adds that the Cardinals are expected to keep the majority of manager Oli Marmol’s staff. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that outfield coach Jon Jay and third base coach Ron Warner will be retained by the team for next season. Jay and Warner were both on expiring contracts.
While the offense as a whole came up short, there were several bright spots in 2026. The biggest development was the breakout of Jordan Walker. The former top prospect blasted 29 homers and stole 22 bases en route to his first All-Star selection. Walker made some batting stance tweaks that helped him get more out of his top-of-the-charts bat speed. He lowered his groundball rate and hit more homers in 2026 than he had from 2023 through 2025.
The Cardinals also saw rookie JJ Wetherholt emerge as a viable tablesetter at the top of the lineup. The young infielder popped 17 homers and scored 89 runs in his first taste of the majors. With Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera as steady producers, plus full seasons of Leo Bernal and Joshua Baez, St. Louis will enter 2027 with a solid foundation on offense. The main goals this offseason will be finding permanent fits at third base and center field, two weak spots in 2026.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images
]]>Blake has been New York’s pitching coach since 2020. He’d been with the organization previously as a scout, before joining the Guardians as a minor league pitching coordinator in 2016. Blake was bumped up to assistant director of player development in 2017, a role he held through the 2019 season. His work in the Guardians system led to a big-league gig with the Yankees.
New York had to navigate several major injuries in the rotation this season. Gerrit Cole began the year on the IL as he recovered from elbow surgery. The same goes for Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodon. Max Fried dealt with elbow issues multiple times during the regular season. The club added Ryan Weathers in an offseason trade with the Marlins. The lefty helped stabilize the back of the rotation until Cole and Rodon returned. Weathers was lost to a flexor strain near the end of August.
With the veterans shuffling on and off the IL, there was a vacancy atop the rotation. Cam Schlittler assumed the ace role and delivered an AL Cy Young-worthy campaign. The 25-year-old righty led the American League with a 1.95 ERA. Schlittler allowed two earned runs or fewer in 27 of 33 starts. He was dominant in a win over the Red Sox in the Wild Card round, but was let down by his defense in the ALDS against the Rays.
The Yankees did not lean on trades and big free agent signings in the bullpen this season. Instead, Blake and company were able to produce strong performances from unheralded arms. Lefty Brent Headrick posted a 2.18 ERA across 81 appearances. Only Mason Fluharty of the Blue Jays was used more frequently than Headrick. Veteran starter Paul Blackburn returned to New York’s bullpen after a brief cameo in 2025. With a bump in velocity and an increase in changeup usage, he emerged as one of the most trusted members of the bullpen. Among pitchers who tossed at least 80 innings, Blackburn led the way with a 1.59 ERA. Fernando Cruz and Tim Hill also put together solid years in front of steady closer David Bednar.
The rotation will look exactly the same in 2027, assuming good health. Weathers will battle Will Warren for the No. 5 starter spot. The bullpen is in flux. Bednar, Blackburn, Hill, and Ryan Yarbrough are free agents. Cruz has a partially torn UCL and his status for next season is uncertain. The Yankees will likely be players in the relief market this winter.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images
]]>The Brewers are rolling with 13 pitchers and 13 position players. The big news is Brandon Woodruff, who makes the final cut after a long layoff. The veteran righty had been working his way back from a shoulder injury and hoped to be ready for the Fall Classic. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since early July. Milwaukee expressed concern about being able to replace Woodruff on the roster if he made it and then had a setback. Apparently, those concerns have dissipated.
It’ll be Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan filling out the back half of the pitching staff, with Woodruff taking Chad Patrick’s spot. Drohan tossed an inning against the Dodgers in the NLCS. Harrison and Patrick haven’t pitched at all. Antonio Senzatela has also been used sparingly, pitching twice in the NLDS and then not at all in the last round. The Brewers have leaned heavily on Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Aaron Ashby, who have combined for 18 appearances. Ashby has covered 12 1/3 innings already, which ranks ninth among all pitchers this postseason.
The hitting group is unchanged for Milwaukee. Christian Yelich and Andrew Vaughn likely remain in a platoon at DH. The matchup against the Rays favors the lefty-swinging Yelich, given that Tampa Bay’s four-man rotation is entirely right-handed. Luis Lara and David Hamilton are on the bench as speed/defensive replacement options.
The Rays are sticking with 12 pitchers and 14 position players. The lone change is lefty Garrett Cleavinger replacing righty Brody Hopkins. Cleavinger was on the ALDS roster, but was swapped out for Hopkins in the ALCS. After introducing the league to the opener concept, Tampa Bay has reversed course, leaning on starting pitchers more than other clubs this postseason. That makes it easier to add an extra bat on the bench. Jorge Mateo was the only hitter to not receive an at-bat in the ALCS, though he appeared twice as a pinch-runner.
Manager Kevin Cash has frequently mixed and matched his platoon bats, with solid results. Richie Palacios had six hits in his three ALCS starts. Ryan Vilade homered in his lone ALDS appearance. It’ll be the left-handed bats taking priority in the first two games, with righties Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson on the mound. Vilade and Ben Williamson could see opportunities whenever lefty Robert Gasser starts.
The Rays’ bullpen hasn’t been the lockdown unit of the past, but it’s led by a breakout closer. Bryan Baker emerged as one of the best relievers in the league this year. He tied Cade Smith for the league lead with 41 saves in the regular season. Baker has somehow been even better in the playoffs, tossing seven scoreless innings while picking up five saves. He’s allowed just three baserunners in his seven outings.
Here are the full rosters for each team…
Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers (* = left-handed): Aaron Ashby*, Shane Drohan*, Robert Gasser*, DL Hall*, Kyle Harrison*, Logan Henderson, Dustin May, Trevor Megill, Jacob Misiorowski, JoJo Romero*, Antonio Senzatela, Abner Uribe, Brandon Woodruff
Catchers: William Contreras, Gary Sanchez
Infielders: Jake Bauers, David Hamilton, Joey Ortiz, Cooper Pratt, Brice Turang, Andrew Vaughn
Outfielders: Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Luis Lara, Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich
Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers (* = left-handed): Bryan Baker, Cam Booser*, Garrett Cleavinger*, Griffin Jax, Kevin Kelly, Nick Martinez, Steven Matz*, Freddy Peralta, Drew Rasmussen, Ian Seymour*, Cole Sulser, Tyler Wells
Catchers: Nick Fortes, Liam Hicks
Infielders: Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, Jorge Mateo, Richie Palacios, Taylor Walls, Ben Williamson
Outfielders: Jonny DeLuca, Víctor Mesa Jr., Cedric Mullins, Chandler Simpson, Ryan Vilade
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images
]]>1. Rays tab Martinez for G1 start
The rumblings that Tampa Bay wouldn’t start Drew Rasmussen on Friday turned out to be correct. It’ll be Nick Martinez facing off against Jacob Misiorowski tonight. The veteran righty held the Guardians to a run on two hits over 5 1/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALCS. Martinez was a steady member of the rotation in the regular season, despite underlying metrics that didn’t support his 3.10 ERA. Rasmussen will likely start Game 2 tomorrow.
2. Rosters coming out this morning
World Series rosters are due soon. We should get the big reveal in the coming hours. The name to look out for is Brewers right-hander Brandon Woodruff. He’s been working his way back into playing shape after a shoulder injury. Woodruff might be more intriguing as the last man in the bullpen than someone like Kyle Harrison or Chad Patrick, neither of whom has pitched yet. The concern for Milwaukee is whether the team could replace Woodruff if he re-injures himself, since his initial injury didn’t occur in the postseason.
3. Will ABS play a factor?
If you aren’t a fan of helmet taps, this is the matchup for you. Brewers hitters have challenged just seven pitches all postseason. Rays hitters haven’t challenged at all. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com points out, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee were the two worst teams by Statcast’s ABS Runs Above Average metric. Basically, these two teams got the least value out of the challenge system in the regular season. “If we get the lead after the sixth or seventh inning, we are reminding guys to save them for the catcher, for sure,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “It’s got to be kind of a run-scoring, game-changing at-bat.”
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
]]>Guaranteed Contracts
- 3B José Ramírez: $150MM through 2032 ($60MM deferred between 2036-51)
- RHP Tanner Bibee: $39MM through 2029 (including buyout of ’30 club option)
Option Decisions
- Team holds $10MM option on RHP Emmanuel Clase ($2MM buyout; Clase remains on unpaid leave)
- Team holds $7.25MM option on RHP Trevor Stephan ($1.25MM buyout)
- Team, RHP Shawn Armstrong hold $8MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Additional Financial Commitment: Owe $1.75MM to Blue Jays as condition of 2025 Myles Straw trade
2027 guarantees: $36.5MM ($10MM deferred)
Total future commitments: $193.5MM plus deferrals owed to Ramírez
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jo Adell (5.085): $9.6MM
- Steven Kwan (5.000): $11.3MM
- Colin Holderman (4.108): $2.3MM
- David Fry (3.154): $1.9MM
- Matt Festa (3.153): $1.5MM
- Patrick Bailey (3.136): $2.3MM
- Gavin Williams (3.103): $4.8MM
- Blake Perkins (3.075): $900K
- Hunter Gaddis (3.073): $2.2MM
- Tim Herrin (3.058): $1.3MM
- Brayan Rocchio (3.001): $3.1MM
- Cade Smith (3.000): $5.5MM
- Slade Cecconi (2.155): $2MM
Non-tender candidates: Adell, Fry, Perkins
Free Agents
- Foster Griffin, Rhys Hoskins, Austin Hedges, Shawn Armstrong, Nathaniel Lowe, Connor Brogdon (minor league), Carlos Hernández (minor league)
Three teams are riding a streak of three or more consecutive division titles: the Dodgers (five), Brewers (four), and Guardians (three). Among American League teams, only the Yankees have a better record than Cleveland since the start of 2024. The Guardians have twice played for the American League pennant in that span, though they were bounced by New York and Tampa Bay, respectively.
Cleveland has had a high floor, anchored by having a future Hall of Famer playing on a series of below-market contracts and their pitching development. Yet they’ve also been hamstrung by payroll limitations that annually leave them with a weak bottom half of the lineup. Cleveland has respectively ranked 28th and 24th in scoring over the last two seasons. Rays pitching held them to 18 runs over six games in the ALCS, where Chase DeLauter was their only real source of offense.
Some of the scoring deficiency is by choice. Cleveland’s front office is content to punt offense from the catcher position, for instance. They clearly believe that’s a big reason they’re routinely among the best in the league at run prevention. That’s fine as long as they’re getting production elsewhere in the lineup, but Cleveland hasn’t gotten enough from first base and the outfield. The middle infield was an issue before the 2026 season as well, though that’s in better position now thanks to a pair of talented rookies.
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The Brewers come into the series with a nice rest advantage. They quickly disposed of the Dodgers in a four-game NLCS sweep that ended on October 15. Misiorowski will have a dozen days between starts. Milwaukee earned home field honors with 103 wins in the regular season.
The Rays needed six games to get past the Guardians in the ALCS. Cleveland jumped out to a 2-1 lead before dropping the final three matchups. The series wrapped up on October 19. Drew Rasmussen will be on regular rest tomorrow after starting Game 5 on Sunday. Tampa Bay could push him to Game 2 for additional rest, as mentioned in today’s Opener.
The 2026 World Series is guaranteed to crown a first-time champion. The Rays and Brewers are among the five franchises to never win a title, along with the Padres, Mariners, and Rockies. It’s the first time since 1980 that two teams who have never won a World Series will play each other. The Phillies earned their first championship in a win over the Royals that year. Kansas City would win its first World Series in 1985 against the Cardinals.
The Brewers’ lone World Series appearance came in 1982. Milwaukee led the league with 95 wins that year. The club faced off against the Cardinals in the Fall Classic. The Brewers set the tone with a 10-1 win in Game 1. They carried a 3-2 lead with the series headed back to St. Louis, but were defeated in the final two matchups on the road.
The Rays have been to the World Series twice in their existence. The franchise started in 1998 and endured 10 straight losing seasons. The run of ineptitude ended in 2008 with a charmed run to the Fall Classic. Tampa Bay fell to Philadelphia in five games. Three of the Rays’ losses in the series were decided by one run. The club made it back to the World Series in the shortened 2020 season. After knotting the series at 2-2, the Rays lost Games 5 and 6, with the Dodgers securing their first title since 1988.
It should be an epic series between the two best teams in each league. The winner will be taking home a title for the first time.
Photos courtesy of Pablo Robles and Kirby Lee, Imagn Images
Who Will Win The World Series?
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Brewers 74% (9,608)
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Rays 26% (3,317)
Total votes: 12,925
The Guardians gave Brogdon a major league contract worth $900K last winter, but the low-cost flier didn’t pan out. The 31-year-old made 16 appearances out of the bullpen and pitched to a 5.06 ERA in 16 innings. Even though Brodgon walked just three hitters, allowing five home runs made it difficult to hold a spot on the Guardians’ roster. They outrighted Brogdon twice during the season, including in late September, and he could only muster a 6.35 ERA in 11 1/3 innings when he took the ball for Triple-A Columbus.
Cleveland was the fourth major league organization for Brogdon, whom the Phillies took in the 10th round of the 2017 draft. He debuted three years later and put together the best stretch of his career from 2021-22, a 101 2/3-inning run of 3.36 ERA pitching with solid strikeout and walk percentages of 23.6 and 6.9, respectively. Big league success has eluded Brogdon since then, though, as he has combined for a 5.59 ERA in 95 frames with the Phillies, Dodgers, Angels and Guardians dating back to 2024.
Hernández inked a minor league pact with Cleveland last November, but he fractured his right leg and left arm in a car crash in his native Venezuela in January. While recovering, the 29-year-old spent the first half of the season on the injured list. After the Guardians selected his contract on Sept. 1, Hernández made two appearances and yielded a pair of earned runs on five hits in three innings. Cleveland then outrighted Hernández, who accepted the assignment and rode out the rest of the season in the minors.
Hernández first pitched for the Guardians in 2025, and he has also seen action with the Royals, Phillies and Tigers since he debuted in 2020. He recorded career bests in innings (85 2/3) and ERA (3.68) with Kansas City in 2021. However, despite a 98 mph fastball, Hernández has struggled to a 5.14 ERA and logged below-average strikeout (20.1%) and walk (11.1%) rates in 302 2/3 major league frames.
Photo courtesy of Scott Marshall, Imagn Images
]]>Edwards and Lopez are each on track to make the first of three potential trips through arbitration this winter, meaning they are controllable through 2029. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $5.4MM salary for Lopez and a $3.5MM payday for Edwards.
Lopez, whom the Marlins stole off waivers from the Giants in 2024, has combined for 10.7 fWAR since he landed in Miami. The 28-year-old was a below-average offensive player from 2024-25, but he slashed a career-best .305/.349/.437 with a 122 wRC+ in 687 plate appearances this season. Although Lopez didn’t hit for much power (11 home runs, .132 ISO) or draw many walks (5.8%), he fanned just 13% of the time. Consistently putting the ball in play helped the speedster to the majors’ fifth-highest batting average and seventh-most stolen bases (34).
Adding in Lopez’s well-regarded work at short, where he accounted for 14 Outs Above Average, 12 Fielding Run Value and 6 Defensive Runs Saved, he was among the majors’ most valuable players this year. Lopez tied Brewers second baseman Brice Turang for fifth in fWAR (5.9) and finished seventh in bWAR (6.1).
With Lopez in the midst of an excellent season, Boston was among the teams that came calling ahead of the deadline. Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix understandably wanted “elite” prospect(s) back, though, and it’s doubtful his asking price has come down just a few months later.
While Edwards presumably wouldn’t command as much in return as his middle infield cohort, he still brings significant value at his salary. Over 1,601 plate appearances since a brief debut in 2023, Edwards has offered almost no power (nine homers, .080 ISO). Nevertheless, while going down on strikes at a meager 14.7% clip, Edwards managed to hit a respectable .282/.351/.361 (106 wRC+) and combine for 7.1 fWAR from 2024-26. The 27-year-old drew walks at a personal-best 11.4% rate this year and stole 21 bases (his third season in a row with 20-plus), though his defensive grades went backward.
After he and Lopez flipped positions early in 2025, Edwards was credited with 7 FRV, 9 OAA and 12 DRS in 97 appearances at second base. He dropped to minus-1 in FRV and minus-2 apiece in OAA and DRS in 138 games at the keystone this season, but that shouldn’t be enough to deter interested teams. The Yankees, who are expected to lose second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to free agency, could be among Edwards’ suitors. They have “greatly liked” Edwards for years, Joel Sherman of the New York Post revealed on a recent episode of his “Pinstripe Post” podcast. Despite that, Sherman expects the Yankees to turn second over to ex-starting shortstop Anthony Volpe next season. If that’s the case, Edwards won’t follow Chisholm in going from the Marlins to the Yankees in a trade.
Thanks in part to the contributions of Lopez and Edwards, the Marlins stayed in the playoff hunt for a decent portion of 2026. The Fish went into the All-Star break at 52-45, but little did anyone know they were three losses into a franchise-record 12-game skid at that point. That stretch doomed Miami’s season and helped lead to a subpar 80-82 record. The Marlins haven’t finished .500 or better or made the postseason since 2023, but if the goal is to vie for a playoff berth next year, it could be a steeper climb without Lopez and/or Edwards.
Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images
]]>Watson, 23, will head into the 2027 season as a depth option in Cleveland. A first-round pick by the Marlins in 2021, he initially drew top prospect fanfare but saw his production wane early in his minor league tenure. Watson went from Miami to Cleveland as part of the 2023 trade swapping out the unwanted contracts of Jean Segura and Josh Bell. He spent parts four seasons in the Guardians’ system before making his major league debut this season.
The Guardians promoted Watson in mid-June and kept him on the big league roster into late May. He totaled 91 plate appearances but managed only a tepid .239/.264/.341 with a homer and nine steals (in 10 attempts). Watson fanned a whopping 32 times in that small sample and drew just three walks. He was more productive in Triple-A, where he batted .247/.361/.455 with 19 homers, 24 steals, a 13.3% walk rate and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 442 trips to the plate. He turned in comparable numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2025.
Watson will have a pair of minor league options remaining heading into 2027. He’s not currently favored to hold a meaningful role early next season or even to break camp with the team. Cleveland’s outfield currently lines up with Jo Adell, Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez as the primary options. Speedster Petey Halpin is on hand as a glove-first backup. Others on the 40-man roster include catcher/left fielder Cooper Ingle, first baseman/corner outfielder CJ Kayfus and versatile Blake Perkins, who can handle all three spots.
That surely won’t be the same group the Guardians carry into 2027. Kwan and Adell are both due notable raises in arbitration ahead of their final seasons of club control. Cleveland has historically been willing to discuss trading players at this juncture of service (e.g. Josh Naylor, Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber). That doesn’t make it a lock that either will be moved, but it’s something other teams will be calling about over the months to come. Perkins, meanwhile, could be a non-tender candidate.
It’s at least possible Cleveland brings in a free agent to join the group, but the Cleveland has signed only a total of six free agent position players to guaranteed contracts in the past five offseasons: Austin Hedges (twice), Luke Maile, Mike Zunino, Josh Bell and Carlos Santana. A notable expenditure in free agency feels unlikely.
]]>“I’ll be in Cleveland,” Vogt told Tim Stebbins of MLB.com and other reporters. “I’m here. I’m coming back.”
Next season will be Vogt’s fourth in Cleveland, which won the American League Central in each of his first three years. After earning AL Manager of the Year honors from 2024-25, Vogt is a finalist again this fall. The former major league catcher guided the Guards to the ALCS for the second time in 2026, but the team is now in the early stages of the offseason after losing in six games to the Rays. While Cleveland took two of the first three, Tampa Bay then won three straight by a combined score of 17-7. It was a bitter ending for Cleveland, though it’s impressive that the club got that far after opening the season with a league-low payroll in the neighborhood of $75MM.
Teams in need of a manager would have coveted Vogt had he been a free agent this offseason, but he signed a multiyear extension after the 2024 campaign. While it’s unknown how many years are left on the contract, Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told Zack Meisel of The Athletic he has “every expectation that Vogt is going to manage here for a really long time.”
Despite the 41-year-old Vogt’s contract status, there has been recent speculation that the manager-less Mariners could try to acquire him from the Guardians in a rare trade for a skipper. Antonetti told Meisel he is aware of the talk, but he revealed the Mariners have not called about Vogt. Prior to joining the Guardians, Vogt was the Mariners’ bullpen coach in 2023. He is also married to a Washington native, and they and their kids live in Olympia, but Vogt is content to continue in his post with the Guardians.
“Our home and our family is the most sacred thing to us,” Vogt said (via Meisel). “We love the Cleveland area. We love our summer here. I love living here. I just wish I could be in two places at once.”
With Vogt locked in, he and Antonetti are expecting Carl Willis and the rest of the coaching staff to return next year, per Meisel. Willis, who was initially with the organization from 2003-09, returned for a second stint as its pitching coach in October 2017. Set to turn 66 in December, it appears Willis will coach for at least one more year. The Guardians recorded the majors’ eighth-best ERA on Willis’ watch in 2026. Right-hander Gavin Williams led the AL with 248 strikeouts, lefty Parker Messick became an AL Rookie of the Year contender, and closer Cade Smith ran roughshod over opposing hitters for the third season in a row.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images
]]>Here is this year’s class:
- Catcher: Dillon Dingler, Tigers
- First base: Matt Olson, Braves
- Second base: Brice Turang, Brewers
- Shortstop: Taylor Walls, Rays
- Third base: Alex Bregman, Cubs
- Left field: Cody Bellinger, Yankees
- Center field: Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox
- Right field: Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox
- Pitcher: Tanner Bibee, Guardians
- Multi-position: Zach McKinstry, Tigers
- Player of the Year: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
- Team of the Year: Cubs
The only repeat winners from last year are Olson, Rafaela and the Cubs. Olson has now earned six of these awards, putting him right behind Mookie Betts (seven) for most all-time. The Cubs accrued 115 Defensive Runs Saved, 28 more than the second-place Rays (87). Crow-Armstrong, the runaway favorite to win the National League MVP, accounted for 16 DRS in center field. Bregman finished with 15 during the first season of his five-year, $175MM contract with the Cubs.
Unsurprisingly, all of the above players are Rawlings Gold Glove Award finalists at their respective positions. The Gold Glove winners will be announced Nov. 1.
Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images (via Reuters Connect)
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