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Thor is the world's largest manufacturer of recreational vehicles, with leading positions in Motorized and Towable RVs (travel trailers and fifth wheels). The company has been profitable every year since its inception in 1980. Thor manufactures a wide variety of RVs in the U.S. and Europe and sells those vehicles and parts to independent, nonfranchise dealers throughout the U.S., Canada, and Europe. The company has approximately 24,900 employees.

The decline in the "Misery Index" has stalled near 7% in recent months after peaking at 15% at the start of the pandemic and subsequently dropping from 12.6% in June 2022 to 6.7% in June 2023. The index is a measure of consumers' well-being that adds the unemployment rate and the annual inflation rate -- which are important to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The index was invented by economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s while he was at the Brookings Institution after leading President Johnson's Council of Economic Advisors. To be sure, the index is below the 9.2% average since 1949 and well below "stagflation" peaks around 20% during the Ford and Carter presidencies. The five-year low was 5.2% in September 2019. Recent surveys of consumer sentiment have been volatile, with The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index falling in February after three consecutive increases. Actual spending has been choppy too. Retail sales rose 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in February. The result was an improvement from January's flat performance but weaker than December's 5% rise. After the report, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for 1Q personal consumption growth declined to 2.2% from 2.9% on March 7. PCE remains the dominant driver of the Nowcast's estimate for GDP to grow 2.3% in 1Q. A risk we have been monitoring is ongoing weakness in big-ticket discretionary spending. Record-high credit-card rates have made consumers reluctant to purchase items that may take months to pay off. Sales at electronics and appliance stores encouragingly turned positive in February, but building materials stores were off 6.1% while furniture and home furnishings stores declined 10.1%. Our analysis of last week's employment report supports our expectation for a mid-year rate cut that could lift discretionary spending. Some improvement in inflation from this week's CPI report would raise our confidence and lower the Misery Index.

U.S. markets pulled back on Thursday on hotter-than-expected inflation data. In February, headline PPI rose 0.6%, up from 0.2% in January and ahead of the expected 0.3% increase -- with nearly two-thirds of the increase attributed to a rise in prices for final-demand goods. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales in January were down 1.3%. Leading the decline were merchant wholesalers (-1.7%), while retailer sales slipped 1.1%, and manufacturer sales declined 1.0%. Inventories were essentially flat, as a 0.4% rise in retail inventories was offset by a 0.3% drop in merchant wholesaler and 0.1% decline in manufacturer inventories. Initial jobless claims for the week were 209,000, down 1,000 from the previous-week's revised level. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Crude oil traded above $81 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $2167 per ounce.

With 1,355 stores at the end of fiscal 2022 and a partnership with Target, Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the U.S. The firm offers makeup (42% of 2022 sales), fragrances, skin care, and hair care products (21% of 2022 sales), and bath and body items. Ulta offers private-label products and merchandise from more than 500 vendors. It also offers salon services, including hair, makeup, skin, and brow services, in all stores. Most Ulta stores are approximately 10,000 square feet and are in suburban strip centers. Ulta was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.