Research Reports

In this edition, we explore Australian asset managers; PAB's revenue; and initiating coverage of RELX; and Lithium Americas, Persimmon, and Inwit.

Stocks pulled back on Friday morning as investors digested inflation data released this week and ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. The Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in February, matching expectations and down from a 0.8% increase in January. Export prices rose 0.8% after advancing 0.9% in January. Prices for fuel imports advanced 1.8%, while nonfuel imports rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -20.9 in March from -2.4 in February and below expectations. New orders declined significantly, and employment and hours worked also fell. Input prices softened moderately, while output prices held steady. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the first weeks of March edged down to 76.5 from 76.9 in February. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. Crude oil traded just above $81 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2165 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The decline in the "Misery Index" has stalled near 7% in recent months after peaking at 15% at the start of the pandemic and subsequently dropping from 12.6% in June 2022 to 6.7% in June 2023. The index is a measure of consumers' well-being that adds the unemployment rate and the annual inflation rate -- which are important to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The index was invented by economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s while he was at the Brookings Institution after leading President Johnson's Council of Economic Advisors. To be sure, the index is below the 9.2% average since 1949 and well below "stagflation" peaks around 20% during the Ford and Carter presidencies. The five-year low was 5.2% in September 2019. Recent surveys of consumer sentiment have been volatile, with The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index falling in February after three consecutive increases. Actual spending has been choppy too. Retail sales rose 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in February. The result was an improvement from January's flat performance but weaker than December's 5% rise. After the report, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for 1Q personal consumption growth declined to 2.2% from 2.9% on March 7. PCE remains the dominant driver of the Nowcast's estimate for GDP to grow 2.3% in 1Q. A risk we have been monitoring is ongoing weakness in big-ticket discretionary spending. Record-high credit-card rates have made consumers reluctant to purchase items that may take months to pay off. Sales at electronics and appliance stores encouragingly turned positive in February, but building materials stores were off 6.1% while furniture and home furnishings stores declined 10.1%. Our analysis of last week's employment report supports our expectation for a mid-year rate cut that could lift discretionary spending. Some improvement in inflation from this week's CPI report would raise our confidence and lower the Misery Index.

In the past week, we have had little economic and EPS data, but we have had some interesting price action across the stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets. That caught us, as well as others, by surprise. But it is a big world out there and we try to avoid missing the forest for the trees!

U.S. markets pulled back on Thursday on hotter-than-expected inflation data. In February, headline PPI rose 0.6%, up from 0.2% in January and ahead of the expected 0.3% increase -- with nearly two-thirds of the increase attributed to a rise in prices for final-demand goods. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales in January were down 1.3%. Leading the decline were merchant wholesalers (-1.7%), while retailer sales slipped 1.1%, and manufacturer sales declined 1.0%. Inventories were essentially flat, as a 0.4% rise in retail inventories was offset by a 0.3% drop in merchant wholesaler and 0.1% decline in manufacturer inventories. Initial jobless claims for the week were 209,000, down 1,000 from the previous-week's revised level. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Crude oil traded above $81 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $2167 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday on hotter-than-expected inflation readings. In February, headline PPI rose 0.6%, up from 0.2% in January and ahead of the expected 0.3% increase -- with nearly two-thirds of the increase attributed to a rise in prices for final-demand goods. A 4.4% rise in energy prices during the month was the main factor in the increase in final-demand goods, contributing over one-third of the increase. PPI rose 0.4% in February, down from 0.6% last month but ahead of the expected 0.2% increase. U.S. retail sales in February were up 0.6%, following the 0.8% decline in January. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $81 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $2162 per ounce.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at $79.60/barrel on Wednesday, as attempts to break to new rally highs above the $79/$80 region continue to be thwarted. However, the price action has been very tight over the past couple of weeks and crude looks like it is percolating under the surface. Oil is still working on a few higher highs and higher lows, but the rally since December 12 has been labored and, to our eye, does not look like an impulsive rally (which would imply a large move higher). This is the same type of action WTI saw back in May and June of 2023 before it took off, rallying from below $70 in early July to $95 by late September. To be confident in a big rally, any move over $80 should be somewhat steep and not just a slow crawl higher.

Determining a realistic estimate for the size of the Artificial Intelligence industry is a challenge, as there is simply no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of the AI development occurs within laboratories and at universities - and results are measured in tangible progress against AI objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all pure-play AI companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. Argus believes that much of the revenue and most of the profitability from the AI industry is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies. These primarily operate in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Key companies include Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, IBM, Alphabet, Salesforce, Nvidia, and Qualcomm in the U.S. China has Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba all developing AI solutions. There is also significant activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation, and connectivity for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of major publicly traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry knowledge of private players. We estimate the global industry annual revenue amounted to $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect that to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion. Annual growth is expected to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in the immediate years, to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period.

Determining a realistic estimate for the size of the Artificial Intelligence industry is a challenge, as there is simply no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of the AI development occurs within laboratories and at universities - and results are measured in tangible progress against AI objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all pure-play AI companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. Argus believes that much of the revenue and most of the profitability from the AI industry is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies. These primarily operate in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Key companies include Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, IBM, Alphabet, Salesforce, Nvidia, and Qualcomm in the U.S. China has Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba all developing AI solutions. There is also significant activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation, and connectivity for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of major publicly traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry knowledge of private players. We estimate the global industry annual revenue amounted to $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect that to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion. Annual growth is expected to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in the immediate years, to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period.

'Green Shoots' from the Fed

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.