U.S. stocks continue to trend higher as investors are not faced with major economic developments and can focus on earnings reports. Disney (DIS) was down more than 10% in midday trading after the company posted results that showed an overall loss, but adjusted profits that beat the consensus. It expects weaker results this quarter. Peloton (PTON) is up on reports that the company is in talks with private equity firms to buy out the company. The Dow is up 0.1%, and S&P 500 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil is trading above $78 per barrel and gold fell $8 to $2323 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Southern Company (SO); AECOM (ACM); Itron Inc. (ITRI); Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) and the Focus List deletions are Dell Technologies Inc (DELL); Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC); Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF); Sempra Energy (SRE).

We are raising our 2Q24 GDP forecast to 1.9% from 1.5% and are reducing our full-year 2024 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2%. The U.S. economy is chugging along, but persistent inflation is delaying the interest-rate relief that many consumers need to finance home renovations and other big-ticket purchases, such as furniture and automobiles. We saw evidence of this in last week's advance estimate of first-quarter GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. GDP expanded in 1Q at an annualized rate of 1.6%. That was well below the 2.5% consensus and 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. As we discussed in our April webinar, the all-important consumer economy is "mixed," but it is still driving the train. Consumer spending, designated as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the GDP report, contributed 1.68 points of the 1.6% growth in 1Q (offset by lower inventory investment and the trade deficit). PCE grew 2.5%, but the consumer category was carried by the huge services component, which was up 4.0%. Consumer spending on goods declined 0.4%, which should worry the Fed. Within goods, nondurables were flat but durables were down 1.2%. Our 3Q GDP estimate remains at 1.8%. Our 4Q estimate is now 2.0% down from 2.3%. One potential headwind to our 4Q estimate is that the Purchasing Managers Index for services (reported last Friday) came in at a contractionary 49.4 in April, ending a run of 15 months above 50. Our forecast is for GDP to grow 2.0% in 2025, with an acceleration to 2.3% in the second half of the year. One concern is that the one-percentage-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2023 likely stoked growth in 4Q23 and 1Q24. The benchmark's 70-basis-point yield increase in 1Q could slow the train in 3Q and 4Q, particularly with the yield curve still inverted. While economic growth may be uneven in 2024 and 2025, we believe the Fed has the ability to bolster growth if needed.

We are raising our intermediate-term technical assessment to bullish from neutral. In just the past three days, the S&P 500 (SPX) has popped 3.2%, the Nasdaq has ripped higher by 4.8%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has jumped 4.4%. That is the largest three-day gain since mid-November for the SPX and since early November for the Nasdaq and the QQQ. The price action coincides with the beginning of the last rally following the late-October pullback low.

As earnings season progresses, insiders are still nowhere near to giving an 'all clear' signal for the stock market. Insider selling activity across the Nasdaq, NYSE, and ASE outpaced buying activity by a factor of nearly 4.00 over the past week, this on a scale where anything above 2.50 is bearish. Still, longer-term readings from Vickers Stock Research have improved over the past several weeks, with the Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio falling to 4.25 from last week's 4.67, as well as from the mid-March high of 5.73. This calming in the eight-week ratios suggests insiders prepared themselves for the volatility we've seen of late and are now in a less-defensive but still-cautious posture.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, continuing Friday's rally after a softer-than-expected jobs report. This week, there are no major economic reports and earnings reports are slowing. Oil prices are up due to concerns that a new Israeli invasion of Rafah is looming as well as news that Saudi Aramco will raise its crude oil prices to Asia and Europe next month. The Dow is up 0.1%, and S&P 500 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Crude oil was trading above $78 per barrel and gold rose $24 to $2333 per ounce.