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The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

Our stock/bond asset-allocation model, which we call the Stock Bond Barometer, is indicating that stocks are the asset class offering the most value at this market juncture. Our model takes into account real-time levels and forecasts of short-term and long-term government and corporate fixed-income yields, inflation, stock prices, GDP, and corporate earnings, among other factors. The output is expressed in terms of standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean reading from the model, going back to 1960, is a modest premium for stocks, of 0.14 sigma, with a standard deviation of 0.97. In other words, stocks normally sell for a slight premium valuation, which they did for most of the 2022 and 2023. But the current valuation level now is a 0.14 sigma discount for stocks, reflecting in large part the move lower in long-term interest rates. Other valuation measures also show reasonable multiples for stocks. The current forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is approximately 21, within the normal range of 15-24. The current S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.2% is below the historical average of 2.9%, but is also 29% of the 10-year Treasury bond yield, compared to the long-run average of 39%. Further, the gap between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the benchmark 10-year government bond yield is about 330 basis points, compared to the historical average of 400 and nose-bleed valuation levels of 200. Lastly, the ratio of the S&P 500 price to an ounce of gold is now 2.3, within the historical range of 1 to 3. We expect the results from our stock-bond valuation model to tilt even more toward stocks as interest rates head lower into 2025 and EPS growth picks up. Based in part on the output from our model, our current recommended asset-allocation model for growth accounts is 70% growth assets and 30% fixed income.

Vulcan Materials is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates, and a major producer of asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. The company operates primarily in the U.S., with operations in 22 states, as well as in Mexico, Columbia, Canada, and Honduras. Founded in 1909, Vulcan Materials has approximately 11,000 employees. VMC shares are a component of the S&P 500.

As we enter the last month of 2024 and look towards 2025, the technical condition of the stock market is very bullish. Of course, 'everyone' on Wall Street knows this -- and whether you're a fundamental or technical analyst, it's difficult to support a bearish case. Unless you're a 'perma-bear.' The research heads at the major banks, brokerages, and research firms have sharpened their pencils and, so far, the consensus for the end of 2025, or at least the 2025 high, is between 6,500 to 7,000 on the S&P 500 (SPX). Considering the SPX is up almost 58% since 12/30/22, another year of 8%-16% gains would be icing on the cake. Since late October of 2023, the SPX's largest pullback was 8.5% in July and August 2024. There has been not one typical 10% correction in over a year. Looking at the December studies that use the performance of the prior 11 months (and taking some with a grain of salt as certain studies hand pick when to start their analysis to get the best outcomes), the average SPX December gain is 1.6% going back to 1927 when we enter the month with a 25% or greater return. It's hard to find a major index that is not at all-time highs, and above a rising 200-day average. On the small- to mega-cap indices, 70% to 77% of stocks are above their 200-day averages. As well, the major index advance/decline lines have made continual all-time highs since bottoming in October of 2023. This bull is 25 months old and, on average, bulls markets last three to four years. So the historical runway has some room. The high target we have for the SPX is 6,500, but we will monitor the technicals (as we always do) and not get caught up in the guessing game.