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Albertsons is the second largest supermarket operator in the United States with over 2,200 stores across a variety of banners. About 80% of the firm’s sales stem from non-perishable and fresh food, of which 25% comes from its portfolio of private brands. The company operates fuel centers and pharmacies at about 20% and 75% of its store locations, respectively. Albertsons went public in 2020 following years of ownership under private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, which still owns about a fourth of outstanding shares.

Kroger is one of the largest grocery retailers in the United States with more than 2,700 stores across a portfolio of over 20 supermarket banners. The company boasts an ingrained presence in US communities, citing that it is a top-two grocer in most of its major market areas. Over one fourth of Kroger’s roughly $110 billion in nonperishable and fresh food sales (about 75% of revenue) stems from its private-label portfolio, of which the company manufactures about 30% of units via its 33 food production plants. The firm also operates fuel stations and pharmacies at 60% and 80% of its locations, respectively.

Mondelez has operated as an independent organization since its split from the former Kraft Foods North American grocery business in October 2012. The firm is a leading player in the global snack enclave with a presence in the biscuit (49% of sales), chocolate (30%), gum/candy (12%), beverage (3%), and cheese and grocery (6%) aisles, as of the end of fiscal 2023. Mondelez's portfolio includes well-known brands like Oreo, Chips Ahoy, Halls, and Cadbury, among others. The firm derives around one third of revenue from developing markets, just more than one third from Europe, and the remainder from North America.

We are raising our 2025 forecast for U.S. GDP growth to 2.1% from 2.0% on slightly stronger consumer spending. We raised our estimates for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in 2Q and 4Q. In both cases, we raised our forecast for spending on goods to 1.6% from 1.2%, with increases to both durables and nondurables. We believe consumers are on a stronger path than our previous 1.2% estimates suggested. Yesterday's big jump in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is significant because "small" businesses account for about half of U.S. private-sector employment. Our quarterly GDP estimates for 2025 are now 1.7%, 1.8 (up from 1.7%), 2.3%, and 2.6% (up from 2.5%). Four indicators driven by a broad array of timely data support our assessment that the economy is healthy and growing. On balance, the indicators may be pointing to slightly softer 4Q growth than our 2.8% estimate, but we remain optimistic about our forecast for a 3% increase in holiday spending based on reports of solid after-Thanksgiving shopping. The rebound in November employment is also a good sign. We are keeping our full-year 2024 GDP estimate at 2.6%. On December 9, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Nowcast was estimating 4Q growth of 3.3%. On December 6, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Staff Nowcast for 4Q called for 1.9% growth. The Weekly Economic Index tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is based on 10 daily and weekly indicators of consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. If, for example, an index value of 2% persisted for an entire quarter, the index would suggest that quarter's GDP would be 2% higher than a year ago. For the week ended November 30, the index was 1.79%, with a 13-week moving average of 2.08%. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) looks at 85 indicators. It slipped to -0.40 in October from -0.27 in September. The CFNAI Diffusion Index slipped to -0.26 in October from -0.22 in September. These readings suggest the economy is growing slightly below average -- but not contracting.