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About the only thing that went up on Tuesday was bond yields -- and their consistent push higher is leading to some anxiety in the stock pits. In just the few weeks since the Federal Reserve laid out its hawkish views toward any more fed fund rate cuts, the "Goldilocks Economy" of not too hot/not too cold seems to be taking a few body shots courtesy of higher yields. The last time a jump in yields led to a selloff in stocks was back in 2023. Yields started higher in May and had a big move higher, peaking in October. Stocks got whacked from July until October of that year, with the S&P 500 dropping 10%. The 10-year yield rose to 4.68% on Tuesday, its highest level since April 30 (about eight months ago). The closing high back in April was 4.7%, and a break of that level would open the door for a move back to 5%. That's not something we or many others were anticipating in early 2025. In the past month, the 10-year has popped 53 basis points (bps) and the move has been fairly steep. Steep moves in interest rates generally are not good for stocks, as they are much better suited for a slow crawl higher. The five-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.47% from 4.03% a month ago, while the two-year is up to 4.3% from 4.1% on December 6. The two/10 yield curve has risen to 38 bps -- the largest spread since the curve went positive about four months ago and the highest spread since May 2022. For stocks, this is the second failed rally since December and the major indices continue to chop around. If the S&P 500 breaks below 5,869, we could see a very important test of the last major breakout level near 5,650. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

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