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Donald Trump and his allies are promising a "blizzard" of activity on Jan. 20, with a wave of executive orders to be signed within hours of his swearing-in and more likely to follow in the days afterward.
The president-elect and top aide Stephen Miller have separately said that once the dust settles the total could be on the magnitude of 100 different executive actions.
"It's going to be immediate," Trump has said of the effects, especially on the issue of immigration.
For investors and business leaders trying to sift through the flurry, it's already clear how some of Trump's plans could affect certain industries or sectors of the economy.
Energy, for example, is set for a keen day-one focus with specific moves planned.
But there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the exact direction Trump will take on other topics — especially the issue of tariffs.
Donald Trump flashes a thumbs up as he concludes remarks after a rally in November. (RYAN M. KELLY/AFP via Getty Images) ·RYAN M. KELLY via Getty Images
A wide array of other issues could also be addressed, from the federal workforce to crypto to TikTok to student loans and more.
"We think Trump's day 1 EOs will be focused on four topics: Immigration, deregulation, bureaucracy reform, and — possibly — tariffs," is how Tobin Marcus, the head of US policy and politics at Wolfe Research, summed things up in a recent note to clients.
"Tariffs are the big wildcard," he added in an indication of the uncertainty around that final agenda item.
Either way, it is likely to be a roller coaster first few hours and days of Trump 2.0 with the president-elect's team having already announced two moments on Inauguration Day itself where he may take action.
Up first will be a signing room ceremony on Capitol Hill soon after he is sworn in at noon ET. Then a second Oval Office signing ceremony at the White House will follow later in the afternoon.
One financial area with some certainty: Energy
Trump is set to focus most on immigration in his initial actions, which could start new immigration raids immediately and also put a move to shut down the US-Mexico border in play.
Miller called it "the most comprehensive border security package in American history," and it could be the beginning of Trump's promised mass deportations but with economic consequences that could be more gradual.
Not so much for another raft of orders teed up on energy.
Trump has promised a "drill, baby, drill" agenda to empower fossil fuel companies that he is set to begin to implement within hours.
"There are a number of things that they can do on day one," Mike Sommers, the president of the American Petroleum Institute, offered in a call with reporters this week pointing to things like reversing Biden's pause on approvals of liquefied natural gas exports as well as rules around electric vehicles and tailpipe emissions.
One area of some uncertainty around energy is whether Trump can reverse Biden's move earlier this month to "permanently" protect more than 625 million acres of the US ocean from offshore drilling.
Trump has vowed to reverse it but questions remain about whether that's a day one move or one that takes a little longer.
"We believe that [Trump] does have the authority to reverse it on day one, and we will defend that position in court," said Sommers, who also noted this could also be an issue that ends up addressed by Congress.
Indeed, the shape of Trump's overall day one moves toward deregulation on energy and other issues are still being hammered out, with Punchbowl news reporting on Thursday that GOP leaders on Capitol Hill are keen to have Trump hold back some of his executive orders so Congress can do it instead.
It's a maneuver apparently aimed at including savings from those moves in larger bills which could then count toward other priorities like tax cuts.
The tariffs X factor
In November, Trump promised specific day one tariff action against Canada and Mexico, saying that on Jan. 20, "I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States" because of his concerns about drugs and crime.
But whether he follows through — and whether the effects are immediate if he does — has been less clear of late. Trump is clearly aiming to go big, but aides have been engaged in a public floating of different tariff strategies, including some that would phase in tariffs gradually, that could be designed to influence those initial moves.
The most muscular move for Trump, which remains under consideration, would be to immediately declare a national emergency using a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
The question is perhaps whether Trump is open to moderating his hard-line tariff instincts in the early going in response to market jitters — and to head off a possible Inauguration Day sell-off.
But the bottom line remains that historic new duties appear to be in the offing.
At his confirmation hearing this week to be the new Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent underlined the ambitious plans as he defended sweeping tariffs and said that a plank of Trump's coming agenda will be "a more generalized tariff as a revenue raiser for the federal budget."
A long list of other issues on the docket from crypto and TikTok to student loans
Of course, Trump and his team are also likely to unveil surprises, with a litany of other day one topics in the mix.
Much of the day one focus for Trump will be on the federal bureaucracy as he moves forward on long-promised plans to bring government workers — even traditionally nonpolitical ones — under his administration's more direct control.
The president-elect is also reportedly considering an early executive order that could delay a TikTok ban for 60 or 90 days, according to the Washington Post.
Considerations there come as the Biden administration signals plans not to enforce the Jan. 19 ban on its final day in power and Trump openly embracing TikTok with CEO Shou Chew even expected to attend the inauguration.
TikTok offices in Culver City, California in 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images) ·Mario Tama via Getty Images
Student loans could also be on the day one agenda as Trump had vowed to reverse many of Biden's moves toward forgiveness. But the shape remains unclear, with a debate about whether Congress should take up that issue instead and count the massive revenue savings as an offset for new spending elsewhere.
Pardoning Trump supporters who were convicted of their roles in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US capitol could also be a day one move.
Trump will also surely use his renewed presidential powers to send a raft of his long-ago-announced nominees to the Senate.
Some are likely to then receive quick approval, like anticipated (for now) Treasury nominee Bessent who had a confirmation hearing this week that touched on tariffs and the Federal Reserve.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Every Friday, Yahoo Finance's Rachelle Akuffo, Rick Newman, and Ben Werschkul bring you a unique look at how US policy and government affect your bottom line on Capitol Gains. Watch or listen to Capitol Gains on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
