Yahoo Finance

Our short- to intermediate-term technical scorecard remains mostly bullish for the major indices. For the S&P 500 (SPX), the five-day/13-day and eight-day/21-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossovers are bullish; the Vortex Indicator and the 21-day rate-of-change (ROC) are in bullish territory; and the Chande Trend Meter (CTM) is improving, but only slightly positive. Daily momentum is still bullish and there was no chart damage during the recent pullback. Some market breadth measures for the SPX are neutral or just slightly positive. Some 59% of stocks in the index are above their 200-day average, while the bullish percent index is only 55%. For the S&P 100 (OEX), 66% of stocks are above their 200-day average; for the Nasdaq 100, the reading is 62%. All of these measures have been in downtrends since late September, and we would like to see them improve to give us more confidence as we move deeper into 2025. So far, the stock market has shaken off a lot of troubling news -- but as evidenced by the price action on Friday, concerns remain and can reemerge quickly. The DeepSeek AI issue seems (seems) to be old news, but the impact of tariffs is an ongoing debate. In a bull market, stocks typically deal with difficult news, digest it, and move higher. The major indices remain in sideways consolidations, with the key intraday levels and range for the SPX between 5,773 and 6,128. For the Nasdaq, the range is 18,832 to 20,205. For the QQQ, it is 500 to 538. A strong move outside these ranges could set the stage for the next intermediate-term trend. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Skyworks designs, develops, and produces analog semiconductors primarily focused on the RF chain. The company operates worldwide, with engineering, manufacturing, and sales & service facilities throughout Asia, Europe, and North America. Addressed markets include mobile device, automotive, industrial, connected home, factory automation, medical, wearable technology, smart energy, and others. Key products include amplifiers, attenuators, modulators & demodulators, filters, diodes, front-end modules, switches, and opto products.

Nvidia Corp., based in Santa Clara, California, is a visual computing company with worldwide operations and markets. The company operates through two segments, Graphics and Compute & Networking. The company's four main markets are gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive. In calendar 2020, Nvidia completed the acquisition of data-center connectivity leader Mellanox.

Monday Tee Up: Powell in the House Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be on Capitol Hill this week; key inflation data will be released; Wall Street will get a strong gauge of consumer spending via updated retail sales data; and earnings reports will continue to hit the tape at an impressive rate. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was off by 0.5%. Year to date, the DJIA is up 4%, the S&P is up 2%, and the Nasdaq is up 1%. Meanwhile, the status of tariffs, proposed changes in the structure of the federal government, inflation, jobs, and geopolitical developments all remain front-burner issues. Earnings reports this week include McDonald's and ON Semiconductor on Monday; Coca-Cola and BP on Tuesday; Cisco Systems and CVS Health on Wednesday; Applied Materials, Unilever, and Deere on Thursday; and Moderna on Friday. Some 308 of the S&P 500 companies have reported, and earnings so far have resulted in a strong 15% year-over-year growth rate. That compares to 9% last quarter. Consumer Discretionary, up 15%, and Financial, up 11%, are the best-performing sectors, while Industrials are the worst, down 3%, that according to Refinitiv. Argus forecasts 12% S&P 500 EPS growth for 2025 and 11% for 2026. On the economic calendar, key inflation data is due and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress. On Monday, Mr. Powell will give his annual testimony on monetary policy to the Senate. On Wednesday, he visits the House of Representatives. Also on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index is released. CPI was 2.9% in December on an annual basis and core CPI was 3.2%. Argus forecasts no change in CPI and we expect core CPI will tick down to 3.1%. For our Economic Call of the Week, Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja, CFA, offers the following. 'We normally try to highlight indicators that aren't widely followed or provide a different perspective on the economy, but this week it will be all about inflation, with consumer prices on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. One reason we are focusing on inflation over retail sales (due Friday) is that inflation expectations jumped in the University of Michigan's sentiment reading last Friday. One-year inflation expectations rose by a full point to 4.3% in February from 3.3% in January. The three-month average through December had been 2.8%. Retail sales will still be important. Our big concern is always the health of consumer spending. We expect the data will confirm that consumers are continuing their strong pace of spending, as unemployment is low and wages are growing. Wealthier consumers are in especially good shape and they count for a higher percentage of spending. However, we note that January of 2024 was the weakest month in 1Q24, and we would not be surprised or overly concerned if consumers take a bit of a pause.' Last week, mortgage rates dipped six basis points (bps), with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.89%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices fell two cents to an average of $3.08 per gallon for regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 1Q and calls for expansion of 2.9%. For 2025, the Argus GDP estimate is for 2.1% growth. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast is forecasting for February and is at 2.62%, which is lower than expectations for January. The next Fed rate decision is on March 19, with odds currently at 17% for a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the next meeting is in early May.