The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20120121183407/http://www.scribd.com/doc/33593580/%CE%A3%CE%97%CE%9C%CE%95%CE%99%CE%A9%CE%9C%CE%91-%CE%95%CE%98%CE%9D%CE%99%CE%9A%CE%97%CE%A3-%CE%91%CE%9D%CE%91%CE%9B%CE%9F%CE%93%CE%99%CE%A3%CE%A4%CE%99%CE%9A%CE%97%CE%A3-%CE%91%CE%A1%CE%A7%CE%97%CE%A3-%CE%A3%CE%A7%CE%95%CE%A4%CE%99%CE%9A%CE%91-%CE%9C%CE%95-%CE%A4%CE%9F%CE%9D-%CE%A5%CE%A0%CE%9F-%CE%A0%CE%A1%CE%9F%CE%A4%CE%91%CE%A3%CE%97-%CE%9D%CE%9F%CE%9C%CE%9F-%CE%9C%CE%95%CE%A4%CE%91%CE%A1%CE%A1%CE%A5%CE%98%CE%9C%CE%99%CE%A3%CE%97%CE%A3-%CE%A4%CE%9F%CE%A5-%CE%91%CE%A3%CE%A6%CE%91%CE%9B%CE%99%CE%A3%CE%A4%CE%99%CE%9A%CE%9F%CE%A5-%CE%A3%CE%A5%CE%A3%CE%A4%CE%97%CE%9C%CE%91%CE%A4%CE%9F%CE%A3-%CE%99%CE%9F%CE%A5%CE%9D%CE%99%CE%9F%CE%A3-2010

ΣΗΜΕΙΩΜΑ ΕΘΝΙΚΗΣ ΑΝΑΛΟΓΙΣΤΙΚΗΣ ΑΡΧΗΣ ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΜΕ ΤΟΝ ΥΠΟ ΠΡΟΤΑΣΗ ΝΟΜΟ ΜΕΤΑΡΡΥΘΜΙΣΗΣ ΤΟΥ ΑΣΦΑΛΙΣΤΙΚΟΥ ΣΥΣΤΗΜΑΤΟΣ -ΙΟΥΝΙΟΣ 2010

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I BULO (2008): Greece: Report to the National Actuarial Authority - Actuarial Projections as of December 2005 of the National Pension Schemes lKA for private sector workers and OGA for agriculture workers; ILO (2008): Actuarial projections of the National Pensions Schemes of the OAEE; ILO (2008): Actuarial projection as of December 2005 of the National Pension Schemes for public servants.

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18200

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43400 1.63.75.26.36.76.76.1

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3.6

1000.01 to 1200

1100

1200.01 to 1400

1300

1400.01 to 1600

1500

1600.01 to 1800

1700

23800

1800.01 to 2000

1900

26600

2000.01 to 2400

2200

30800

2400.01 to 2800

2600

36400

2800.01 to 3400

3100

43400

3400.01 to 4200

3800

53200

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4200

58800

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850.01 to 1000

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1000.01 to 1200

1100

15400

1200.01 to 1400

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1500

21000

1600.01 to 1800

1700

23800

1800.01 to 2000

1900

26600

1.7

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2200

30800

1.6

1.7

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2600

36400

1.6

1.7

1.8

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3100

43400

1.7

1.8

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3800

53200

1.7

1.8

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4200

58800

1.6

1.7

1.8

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up to 850

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1200.01 to 1400

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1400.01 to 1600

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1600.01 to 1800

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2800.01 to 3400

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- 112 -

LTO auvoA6 TOU, TO auanllJa TWV E:Tr;arWV 7TOaOOTWV ava7TAr;pWat'lt; EivQI IJI1 avaYKaia 7TE:pi7TAoKO . .6E:OOlJtVI1~ TI1t; 7TapE:XOIJE:Vt'lt; laXUpr;t; 7TpOOTaaiat; TWV xalJt'lAwv E:laOOt'llJclTWV OlalJtaOU TWV KaTWTQTWV opiwv ooov aq>opa OTa 7TOaa TWV aUVTa~E:WV, 11 a7TAo7TOiI1GI1 TOU 7TOaOOTOU ava7TAr;pWal1t; cc tva OIJOIOIJOpq>O 7ToaoOTO 7Tleava ea oIWKoAUVE: crro 7TpaKTIKr;t; rrAwpat;.napoAa curd, IJla alJE:at'l IJdwal1 TOU E:Tr;arOU noocoroo avarrAr;pwal1t; oe 1,2/0 xwpit; Tt'I l)aarKri a0vTa~I1, E:VOE:xolJE:va OE:V ea IKavorrOIOUaE: TI~ a7TaITr;OE:It; TI1t; LUVer;Kt'lt; TOU ILO No 102, LUVE:rrWt; 11 I xcvorrotnon Tt'lt; LUVer;KI1t; ea E:iXE: cllJE:al1 E:~clPTllOl1 crro TIt; E:KaOTOTE: IJE:AAOVTIKtt; ava7TpOOaplJoytt; Tt'lt; KaTWTQTI1t; aUvTQ~I1t;. LE: KaeE: 7TE:pi7TTWOI1 tva aaq>aAIOTIKO axrilJa IJE: £Tr;0I0 7ToaoOTO ava7TAriPwat'lt; uIjiOUt; 1,2% OE:V dVQI 7TlSavov va IKaVOrrOIEi TOU~ opou~ TI1<; LUVSr;Kt'I~ vro TI~ rrapoxt~ Avarrt'lpia~, rr;paTO~ Kal Xl1pda~ TOU 1967 (No 128) TOU ILO, TlW orroia tXE:1 E:rrial1~ E:7TlKUPWOE:1 11 EAAaoa. MIQ 7TE:paITtpw avaAual1 8a nrcv avaYKaia scv curol 7TOU Sa A6l)ouv TI~ a7Toq>aaE:l~ 8E:Ariaouv va E:rravtASouv oe tva IJOVO Kal OIJOIOIJOpq>o errioto auVTE:AE:OTrl ava7TAr;pwal1t;. ETrlalo~ aUVTE:AE:OTrl~ ava7TAr;pwal1t; OTO E:7Ti7TE:OO TOU 1,5/0 olaq>aiVE:TOI «aaq>aAl1~».

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0.9

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0.1

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1.4

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1.4

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EKTlfJOUfJEVO tAAE1fJfJO TOU EAAJ']VIKOU LUVTO~I0i50TlKOU LUOT~fJOTO<; 2008 - 2060, 22 louviou 2010

2008

1.9

1.0

0.2

0.8

5.6

2009

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.8

5.8

2010

3.7

1.0

2.1

1.0

0.2

0.8

6.2

2011

3.9

1.3

2.2

1.1

0.2

0.8

6.8

2012

4.0

1.3

2.3

2.2

1.1

0.3

0.8

6.9

2013

4.0

1.3

2.3

2.2

1.1

0.3

0.8

6.9

2014

4.0

1.3

2.3

2.2

1.2

0.3

0.8

6.9

2015

4.0

1.3

2.3

2.2

1.2

0.3

0.8

6.9

2016

4.0

1.3

2.3

2.2

1.2

0.4

0.8

6.9

2017

3.9

1.3

2.3

2.1

1.3

0.4

0.8

6.9

2018

3.9

1.2

2.3

2.1

1.3

0.4

0.8

6.9

2019

3.9

1.2

2.3

2.1

1.3

0.5

0.8

6.8

2020

3.9

1.2

2.3

2.0

1.4

0.5

0.8

6.8

2025

4.0

1.2

2.3

1.9

1.6

0.7

0.8

7.0

2030

4.3

1.4

2.5

1.9

1.0

0.8

7.6

2035

4.6

1.7

2.6

1.7

2.1

1.3

0.8

8.1

2040

5.0

2.1

2.7

1.7

2.4

1.6

0.8

8.8

2045

5.8

2.9

2.8

1.6

2.6

1.8

0.8

9.9

2050

6.6

3.6

2.9

1.5

2.7

1.8

0.8

10.7

2055

6.9

4.0

3.0

1.3

2.6

1.8

0.8

10.8

2060

6.9

4.0

3.0

1.1

2.5

1.7

0.8

10.7

- 1 ~ 6-

EKTI~OU~£VO tAA£I~~a TOU EAAilVIKOU rUVTO~IOOOTIKOU ruaT~~OTo<; 2008 - 2060, 22 louviou 2010

2009

3.5

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.8

5.7

2010

3.7

1.0

2.1

1.0

0.2

0.8

6.1

2011

3.9

1.0

2.2

1.1

0.2

0.8

6.4

2012

3.9

0.9

2.2

1.1

0.2

0.8

6.3

2013

3.9

0.8

2.2

2.1

1.1

0.2

0.8

6.2

2014

3.9

0.7

2.2

2.1

1.1

0.3

0.8

6.1

2015

3.8

0.7

2.2

2.1

1.2

0.3

0.8

6.1

2016

3.8

0.6

2.3

2.0

1.2

0.3

0.8

6.1

2017

3.8

0.6

2.3

2.0

1.2

0.3

0.8

6.0

2018

3.7

0.6

2.3

2.0

1.2

0.4

0.8

6.0

2019

3.7

0.5

2.3

1.9

1.2

0.4

0.8

5.9

2020

3.6

0.5

2.3

1.9

1.3

0.4

0.8

5.9

2025

3.6

0.3

2.4

1.8

1.4

0.5

0.8

5.9

2030

3.8

0.4

2.6

1.8

1.5

0.7

0.8

6.4

2035

4.0

0.4

2.7

1.7

0.9

0.8

6.5

2040

4.2

0.6

2.8

1.6

1.9

1.0

0.8

6.8

2045

4.8

1.2

2.7

1.5

2.0

1.2

0.8

7.4

2050

5.3

1.B

2.4

1.4

2.0

1.2

0.8

7.6

2055

5.5

2.0

1.9

1.3

2.0

1.2

0.8

7.1

2060

5.5

2.0

1.4

1.1

1.9

1.1

0.8

6.5

(1)

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n apapTrUJa A

A.1.AOIJ" Kal OIKOVOIJIK'; KarelOTaal1 rwv l:uVTa~looorIKWV l:XI1lJelrWV -ETOl: 2008

Pension Funds

ACTIVE contributors

Subsidy

Reported Other

CONTRIBUTIONS, EXPENDITURES SUBSIDY resources

PENSIONERS (mill. Euro) • (mill. Euro) [mill. Euro) (mill. Euro)

Total

Primary State

deficit/sur subsidy plus (+), due, Mill. Mill. Euro Euro

'State

subsidy

due, in% of due in %

GOP of Total

Stale

Puonc Sectcr' I{A'u,

OAEE

548,555 335,529

2.558,954 1.003.900

749,681 278,979

Total

OGA

710,463 4,667,853

714,901 2,393,309

1,925 305

m mmcns _~,~25 8,238 2,329 '.834

2.407

629

4.697

-404

-4.529

-4614 ·1925 -404

-4529

-11.472

-1.93 .o.BO .0.17 -1.89

-4.S0

35 14 3 34 86

Subtotal: the big fOUf

8M/KS (ETE/ATEIETBAfTAPIL T lAPDTE t'rereccmcmceuon) "0 D!:,H(Electrlc:ity)

BANK OF GREECE

21,001 29.962 24,532 2.480

254,516 22.000 21,500 23,975

ETAA

ETAP-~ (Journalists)"

NAT OTHERS(TSP·HSAPfTSEAPSG

25,557 50,170 32,446 4,704 28.975 5.200 69.784 15.286

1,076 90

100

1.020

900 roe

221

211 a 912

497

156 94 26

7B ..,2 -127

-113

-731

_25

-892

-127

.oos -0,31 000 -0.01 0.00 000 -0.37 .oOS

Subtotal. Smaller schemes

399,946

100

TOTf:.J..

4.967.799

232,122

2.625.431

2,312

11.766

4.574

25.500

lA93

9.226

836

• Data from the study of 2008 -prclecncns (base year 2005-2007)' The mlUtary Is included, the deficit In the PS is considered 8 subsidy ··.Dat" from the. report of the .Social Budget ~OO8

-- Stall!aically reported subsidy dlta lor one hall year only due 10 merger of Scheme with IKA was Euro mill., here estimated to be eqivalenl to Euro mill. 753 p.e .

• -. statistical subsidy reduced by 4B: 0.919492339 0.911587088

A.2.

BaUIKEt; MaKpOOIKOVOIJ1KEt; npOlhr09EUEIt;

-1.426

-12.898

-t.eee

-13.360

-0.79

-5.59

Baseline scenario

2000

MAJN VARIABLES

Real GDP (growth rate) Labour Input (growlh rate) Emplo)ml!nl growlh (15-71)

Changes In Hours wor1<ed per emplo)'ft (growth rale) labour PfOductlvlty jgrowth rate, per hour1

TFP (growth rale)

Capital deepening (cortribtAion 10 !abo"," ",oductivily grow1hj GOP In 2007 prices (in blnlons euros)

Employment growth (15-64)

Population growth (WOrking age:15-64) Participation raleI15-64)

Employment rate (15-64) Unempjo.,menlrale{15-64

231.0

2008

2009

2010

Year.

2015 20X1

2030 2035

21 0.0 00 0.0 21 13 0.8

1.5 1.4

-0.1 -0.6

0.0 00

1.6 1.9

1.0 1.3

0.6 0.7

316.0 338.9

-0.1 -0.6

-0.4 -0.6

68.3 68.3

62.6 626

8.3 8.3

2040

1.1 .o.7 .o7 0.0 1.8 1.2 0.6

359.9

.o7 -0.8 68' 62,7 8.3

2045

1.0

.o6 .o6 0.0 16 1.1 0.6

378.5 .o7 .o.7 68.7 63.0 8.3

2050

1.2 .o5 .o5 0.0 1.7 11 0.6

3994

.o, -o.s 69.1 63.4 8.3

2055

1.3 .o, .o, 0.0 1.7 1.1 06

I.' .o3 .o3 0.0 1.7 U 0.6

2.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.7

-2.0

-1.0

-1.2

0.1 .oS -1.7 0.8

~o -26

-2.6

0.0 .1.4 ->-7 1.3

217.3 -1.8 0.1 68.2 BO.2 11.6

2.2 2.8

0.5 0.2

0.0 0.0

1.7 2.6

1.8 2.1

-0.1 0.5

727.7 258.4

0.5 0.2

0.0 -0.2

69.3 69.4

59.7 61.1

13.8 12.0

289.9

00 -0.2 688 61.8 10.1

4254

455.9

226.5

1.8 0.3 67.5 62.3 77

-1.2 0.3 67.8 61.4 9.5

-o.a .o2 69.0 63.3 8.3

.o3 -o.a 68.8 63.1 83

scenario with pensions reform

MAiN VARIABLES

Real GOP (growth rate! Labour Input (growth r.rtej EmpIo)ml!nt growth (IS-71)

Changes In Hours wor1<ed per employee (growth rate) Labour productlvhy (growth rate, per hour)

TfP jgrowth rale)

Capital deepening (cortribtAion to laboll" produ:;tivity growth) GOP In 2007 prlces (In bllions euros)

Emplo)'l1eOt growth (15-64)

PopulatiOn growth IwoJ1(lng age:15-64) Partlclpallonrate 115-64)

Emp~1 rate (15.&4) Unemployrnenlrate 15-64)

Year.

231.0

2008

2009

2010

2015 2020

2025

2030 2035

2040

11 .o7 .o7 0.0 1.8 1.2 0.6

377.9 .o7 .o, 72.4 68.3 8.3

2045

0.9 .o7 -o.z 0.0 1.6 1.1 0.6

395.1

.o7 .o.7 72,4 663 8.3

2050

1.1

-0.5 .o5 0.0 1.7 1.1 0.6

416.6 -0.5 .o5 72.6 66.5 8.3

2055

2060

1.3

1.5 -0.2 .o.2 00 1.7 1.1 0.6

.o, .o, 0.0 1.7 11 0.6

443.4 .o3 .o.2 72.4 66' 8.3

475A

-0.2 .o2 722 66.2 8.3

2.0 0.3 0' 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.7

-2.0

-1.0

-1.2

-40

-26

-2.6

2.5 3.1

0.9 0.5

0.0 0,0

1.7 2.6

1.6 2.1

-0.1 0.5

229.2 264.1

0.9 0.5

0.0 -0.2

70.1 71.5

60.4 62.9

13.8 12.0

,3 0.2 0.2 0.0 21 13 0.8

1.6 1.5

0.0 -0.4

0.1 -0.4

0.0 0.0

1.6 1.9

1.0 1.3

0.6 0.7

328.2 354.9

0.1 -0.4

-0.4 -0.6

71.3 72.1

65.4 66.1

83 8.3

0.1

-0.9 .1.7 0.8

226.5

1.8 0.3 67.5 62.3 7.7

-'.2 0.3 67.8 61.4 9.5

0.0

-1.4

-2.7

1.3 217.3

-1.B

68.2 60.2 11.6

299'

.o2 71.5 64.2 10.1

n opaprrUJO B.

npO(jll'Oe£o"£l~ KOI oll'OT£A£O"J..IOTO

n;vaKa~ 1.1 IKA [H1IJoypa<pIKo O"rolXEia 2008·2060

(Status quo scenario)

# auvra~louxwv

A6yor;

ETO!:

EUVOAO

auvTa~louxwV

ElacpEpovTWV

r~paTOr;

AvarrllPiar;

ETTI~WVTWV

rrpor;

ElCycptpovTEr;

2008

2,558,954

607,264

131,154

265,960

1,004,378

0.39

2009

2,512,945

603,596

132,987

267,186

1,003,769

0.40

2010

2,436,984

601,131

134,798

268,292

1,004,220

0.41

2011

2,315,137

599,548

136,637

269,297

1,005,482

0.43

2012

2,303,746

598,831

138,507

270,197

1,007,535

0.44

2013

2,340,134

598,583

140,648

271,106

1,010,337

0.43

2014

2,370,905

599,448

143,237

271,991

1,014,676

0.43

2015

2,400,319

600,644

146,162

272,816

1,019,622

0.42

2016

2,423,091

602,939

149,348

273,721

1,026,008

0.42

2017

2,444,464

605,636

152,738

274,588

1,032,962

0.42

2018

2,466,050

609,016

156,339

275,292

1,040,647

0.42

2019

2,487,723

613,444

160,167

275,941

1,049,551

0.42

2020

2,504,083

618,603

164,226

276,457

1,059,286

0.42

2025

2,568,951

657,753

188,255

277,514

1,123,521

0.44

2030

2,623,730

735,661

217,706

276,529

1,229,896

0.47

2035

2,563,300

826,084

251,120

277,052

1,354,256

0.53

2040

2,473,419

952,178

285,587

283,872

1,521,638

0.62

2045

2,382,019

1,142,751

315,588

299,945

1,758,283

0.74

2050

2,307,822

1,297,355

337,214

325,940

1,960,509

0.85

2055

2,275,250

1,374,770

350,448

359,901

2,085,119

0.92

2060

2,261,062

1,411,609

356,776

397,517

2,165,902

0.96

mvaKa~ 1.2 IKA b.rwoypaq>IKo CHolXEia 2008·2060

(Reform scenario)

# (J"uvTa~louxwV

A6yoS

ETor

rUVOAO

(J"uvTa~louxwV

EIO'lpep6vTWv

r~paTos

Avarr~pfas

ETTI~WVTWV

rrpoc

EIO'cptpovn:s

2008

2,558,954

607,264

131,154

265,960

1,004,378

0.39

2009

2,512,945

603,596

132,987

267,186

1,003,769

0.40

2010

2,436,984

601,131

134,798

268,292

1,004,220

0.41

2011

2,315,137

599,614

136,496

269,296

1,005,406

0.43

2012

2,303,746

599,040

137,944

270,195

1,007,179

0.44

2013

2,349,557

599,017

139,356

271,101

1,009,475

0.43

2014

2,390,842

600,217

140,867

271,981

1,013,065

0.42

2015

2,432,279

601,848

142,351

272,795

1,016,995

0.42

2016

2,469,148

604,728

143,727

273,685

1,022, 139

0.41

2017

2,505,247

608,152

144,931

274,529

1,027,611

0.41

2018

2,542,018

612,424

145,955

275,203

1,033,582

0.41

2019

2,577,415

617,934

146,797

275,812

1,040,543

0.40

2020

2,606,497

624,379

147,441

276,279

1,048,098

0.40

2025

2,712,684

672,031

152,560

276,906

1,101,498

0.41

2030

2,787,925

762,124

161,873

275,178

1,199,174

0.43

2035

2,763,560

867,412

174,491

274,720

1,316,622

0.48

2040

2,683,195

1,014,469

188,964

280,477

1,483,911

0.55

2045

2,570,685

1,236,631

202,490

295,763

1,734,884

0.67

2050

2,479,338

1,429,766

212,790

321,769

1,964,324

0.79

2055

2,440,353

1,550,965

219,315

356,845

2,127,125

0.87

2060

2,424,054

1,626,020

222,343

396,792

2,245,155

0.93

- 122-

mvaKa~ 2.1 IKA lTpo~oAr1 lTapOXwv ava xornvoplc 2008·2060 (sxcr.)

(Status quo scenario)

napoxt~

sror

r~paTo~

Avcrrnpic;

ETTI~WVTWV

HlVOAO

(% TOU

napoXE~ %

aO"cpaAiO"IJ.lOU

TOU AEn

J.l10"90u)

2008

5,753

930

1,555

8,238

27.1

3.44

2009

5,895

970

1,603

8,468

27.4

3.57

2010

6,103

1,018

1,664

8.785

28.9

3.71

2011

6,446

1,088

1,761

9,295

31.3

3.95

2012

6,691

1,140

1,827

9,657

31.3

3.98

2013

6,944

1,196

1,896

10,035

31.1

3.97

2014

7.216

1,257

1,968

10,440

31.0

3.97

2015

7,495

1,322

2,042

10,860

30.8

3.96

2016

7,798

1,392

2,121

11,311

30.7

3.95

2017

8,116

1,467

2.202

11,786

30.6

3.94

2018

8,455

1,547

2,286

12,288

30.5

3.93

2019

8,820

1,632

2,373

12,826

30.3

3.92

2020

9,210

1,723

2,464

13,397

30.1

3.90

2025

11,637

2,284

2,965

16,886

29.8

3.97

2030

15,361

3,036

3,561

21,958

31.0

4.29

2035

19,701

4,022

4,280

28,003

32.6

4.62

2040

25,305

5,317

5,171

35,793

35.3

5.03

2045

34,885

6,907

6,299

48,091

41.2

5.82

2050

46,667

8,661

7,751

63,079

46.7

6.56

2055

57,572

10,524

9,586

77,682

48.7

6.87

2060

68,629

12,539

11,797

92,966

49.1

6.95

nivaKa~ 2.2 IKA lTpO~OA~ lTapOXwv avO. KaTllVOpia 2008·2060 (sxcr.)

(Reform scenario)

napoxt~

sror

r~paTo~

AVaTTl]pia~

ETTI~WVTWV

ruvoAo

(%TOU

napoxt~ %

a(](paAiC7llJou

TOU AEn

1J10'90u)

2008

5,753

930

1,555

8,238

27.1

3.44

2009

5,867

968

1,596

8,431

27.3

3.55

2010

5,931

992

1,617

8,540

28.2

3.75

2011

6,007

1,014

1,638

8,659

29.6

3.90

2012

6,094

1,033

1,659

8,787

29.9

3.92

2013

6,310

1,073

1,714

9,097

29.6

3.90

2014

6,548

1,114

1,771

9,434

29.3

3.87

2015

6,796

1,156

1,830

9,782

29.0

3.83

2016

7,069

1,197

1,892

10,158

28.7

3.80

2017

7,357

1,238

1,956

10,552

28.4

3.77

2018

7,652

1,276

2,022

10,951

28.0

3.73

2019

7,975

1,311

2,091

11,377

27.6

3.69

2020

8,325

1,346

2,161

11,832

27.2

3.65

2025

10,541

1,563

2,546

14,649

26.2

3.61

2030

13,857

1,864

2,996

18,717

26.5

3.81

2035

17,441

2,254

3,535

23,230

26.8

3.96

2040

21,829

2,763

4,193

28,785

27.9

4.17

2045

29,510

3,394

5,017

37,921

31.9

4.75

2050

38,920

4,098

6,063

49,081

35.9

5.29

2055

47,789

4,841

7,344

59,975

37.3

5.50

2060

56,897

5,624

8,827

71,348

37.5

5.53

- 124 -

niVOKO~ 3.1 IKA rrpo~oA~ XPIlI..I0TOOIKOV0I..IIKWV I..IEVE9WV, 2008·2060 (EKOT.) (Status quo scenario)

ETor

napOXE~

ET~aIO 'EMEIj.lj.Ja (% oro AEn)

2008

6,379

8,238

-1,859

0.78

2009

6,476

8,493

-2,017

0.85

2010

6,376

8,810

-2,434

1.03

2011

6,220

9,322

-3,102

1.32

2012

6,467

9,685

-3,218

1.33

2013

6,761

10,064

-3,303

1.31

2014

7,052

10,470

-3,418

.1.30

2015

7,362

10,890

-3,528

1.29

2016

7,687

11,342

-3,655

1.28

2017

8,037

11,818

-3,781

1.27

2018

8,416

12,322

-3,906

1.25

2019

8,835

12,860

-4,026

1.23

2020

9,280

13,432

-4,152

1.21

2025

11,778

16,926

-5,148

1.21

2030

14,707

22,004

-7,297

1.42

2035

17,854

28,057

-10,203

1.68

2040

21,060

35,858

-14,799

2.08

2045

24,219

48,171

-23,952

2.90

2050

28,074

63,179

-35,105

3.65

2055

33,111

77,807

-44,695

3.95

2060

39,339

93,121

-53,782

4.02

nivaKa~ 3.2 IKA TTpO~OA~ XPlll.laTOOIKoVOlJlKWV IJEYE9wv, 2008·2060 (EKaT.) (Reform scenario)

ETor

ElacpopE~

nOpOXE~

ET~aIO 'EAA£IIlIlO (% aTO AEn)

2,008

6,379

8,238

-1,859

0.78

2,009

6,477

8,456

-1,978

0.83

2,010

6,358

8,565

-2,207

0.97

2,011

6,423

8,684

-2,261

1.02

2,012

6,736

8,812

-2,075

0.93

2,013

7,367

9,123

-1,756

0.75

2,014

7,704

9,460

-1,756

0.72

2,015

8,068

9,809

-1,740

0.68

2,016

8,455

10,186

-1,731

0.65

2,017

8,873

10,580

-1,708

0.61

2,018

9,328

10,980

-1,652

0.56

2,019

9,829

11,407

-1,578

0.51

2,020

10,361

11,863

-1,501

0.46

2,025

13,330

14,684

-1,354

0.33

2,030

16,788

18,755

-1,967

0.40

2,035

20,637

23,273

-2,636

0.45

2,040

24,547

28,837

-4,289

0.62

2,045

28,209

37,983

-9,775

1.22

2,050

32,521

49,157

-16,636

1.79

2,055

38,166

60,068

-21,902

2.01

2,060

45,236

71,462

-26,226

2.03

nrvaKa~ 4.1 IKA ~£iKTI'J~ napoxwv, 2008·2060

nrvaKa~ 4.2 IKA ~£iKTI'J~ napoxwv, 2008·2060

(Status quo scenario)

(Reform scenario)

ETm:

Neol ruv/xol r~paTos

ruvoAo ruv/xwv r~paTos

ETor

Neol ruv/Xol r~paTos

ruvoAo ruv/Xwv r~paTos

2008

80%

2008

80%

2009

99.0%

79%

2009

98.9%

79%

2010

100.6%

81%

2010

100.0%

79%

2011

101.2%

84%

2011

99.2%

79%

2012

100.1%

83%

2012

98.7%

80%

2013

98.4%

84%

2013

97.9%

80%

2014

97.3%

85%

2014

97.7%

81%

2015

95.4%

85%

2015

96.4%

81%

2016

94.7%

85%

2016

96.1%

82%

2017

94.1%

85%

2017

95.3%

82%

2018

93.4%

85%

2018

91.3%

81%

2019

92.4%

84%

2019

90.6%

81%

2020

91.4%

84%

2020

90.0%

80%

2025

88.1%

80%

2025

85.3%

76%

2030

83.1%

77%

2030

76.5%

72%

2035

67.7%

71%

2035

58.1%

64%

2040

63.8%

65%

2040

52.8%

56%

2045

69.3%

62%

2045

56.8%

52%

2050

70.8%

61%

2050

55.6%

49%

2055

67.3%

60%

2055

52.7%

47%

2060

65.9%

58%

2060

51.3%

45%

mvaKa~ 1.1

OAEE 1l~J.loypa<pIK6 (HOIXEia 2008·2060

(Status quo scenario)

# O'UVTa~IOUXWV

A6yo~

ETor

ruvoAo

O'uvTa~louxwV

EIO'lpEp6vTWV

r~paTo~

AvaTTllpia~

ETTI~WVTWV

TTpO~

EIO'CPEpOVTE~

2008

749.881

154,761

29,861

94,357

278,979

0.37

2009

746,096

149,181

30,822

92,718

272,721

0.37

2010

739,003

144,996

31,905

91,363

268,264

0.36

2011

725,810

141,934

33,121

90,506

265,561

0.37

2012

726,444

140,183

34,477

90,070

264,730

0.36

2013

733,065

139,645

35,929

89,714

265,287

0.36

2014

738,851

140,302

37,456

89,468

267,226

0.36

2015

744,192

141,840

39,033

89,239

270,112

0.36

2016

748,445

144,301

40,643

89,057

274,001

0.37

2017

752,391

147,014

42,276

88,908

278,199

0.37

2018

755,588

149,727

43,934

88,782

282,444

0.37

2019

759,398

152,854

45,627

88,675

287,156

0.38

2020

761,647

156,813

47,360

88,578

292,752

0.38

2025

766,383

184,593

56,451

88,118

329,162

0.43

2030

762,305

224,169

65,668

87,900

377,737

0.50

2035

741,993

266,921

73,988

88,652

429,561

0.58

2040

718,158

306,204

80,519

90,831

477,554

0.66

2045

693,539

334,625

84,798

94,025

513,448

0.74

2050

672,038

348,399

86,918

97,298

532,614

0.79

2055

656,932

348,361

87,421

99,599

535,382

0.81

2060

645,342

344,215

87,063

100,151

531,429

0.82

mvaKa~ 1.2 OAEE ll~lJoypacplKa O'Tolx£ia 2008·2060

(Reform scenario)

# auvTa~louxwV

A6yo~

ETOI:

I:UVOhO

auvTa~louxwV

Ela<pEpovTWV

r~paTos

AvaTTlJpia~

ETTI~WVTWV

TTpO~

EIC1cptpovTES

2008

749,881

154,761

29,861

94,357

278,979

0.37

2009

748,470

149,145

30,822

92,718

272,685

0.36

2010

741,383

144,921

31,906

91,364

268,190

0.36

2011

728,168

141,812

33,123

90,507

265,442

0.36

2012

728,852

140,037

34,484

90,073

264,594

0.36

2013

737,279

139,475

35,941

89,717

265,133

0.36

2014

745,809

140,116

37,474

89,472

267,062

0.36

2015

754,421

141,633

39,061

89,245

269,939

0.36

2016

762,106

144,081

40,682

89,065

273,828

0.36

2017

769,851

146,782

42,327

88,918

278,028

0.36

2018

776,751

149,484

43,999

88,795

282,278

0.36

2019

784,123

152,597

45,708

88,691

286,996

0.37

2020

789,500

156,546

47,461

88,598

292,604

0.37

2025

805,186

184,293

56,737

88,163

329,192

0.41

2030

807,754

223,873

66,310

88,004

378,186

0.47

2035

796,356

267,015

75,168

88,860

431,044

0.54

2040

773,759

307,643

82,443

91,210

481,296

0.62

2045

743,894

338,963

87,682

94,675

521,320

0.70

2050

717,641

357,171

90,900

98,361

546,432

0.76

2055

700,843

363,062

92,486

101,231

556,779

0.79

2060

688,749

365,325

93,015

102,510

560,851

0.81

- 123-

mvaKa~ 2.1

OAEE TTpo~oM rrapoxwv ava KarrlYopia 2008·2060 (E:KaT.)

(Status quo scenario)

napoxt~

ETOL

r~paTo~

Avarrrlpia~

ETTI~WVTWV

LuvoAo

(% TOU

% TOU

aO'q>aAiO'IIJou

IJ10'90u)

AEn

2008

1,655

244

430

2,329

24.0

0.97

2009

1,655

268

446

2,369

24.2

1.00

2010

1,685

295

466

2,446

24.9

1.03

2011

1,762

331

499

2,593

25.6

1.10

2012

1,829

365

527

2,721

25.9

1.12

2013

1,922

401

557

2,881

26.3

1.14

2014

2,043

441

589

3,073

27.0

1.17

2015

2,188

483

623

3,294

27.8

1.20

2016

2,358

528

659

3,545

28.7

1.24

2017

2,540

575

698

3,812

29.6

1.28

2018

2,730

625

738

4,093

30.4

1.31

2019

2,937

678

781

4,396

31.2

1.34

2020

3,171

734

826

4,732

32.1

1.38

2025

4,656

1,058

1,090

6,804

37.6

1.60

2030

6,746

1,447

1,423

9,616

44.9

1.88

2035

9,369

1,894

1,833

13,095

52.2

2.16

2040

12,465

2,375

2,324

17,164

58.9

2.41

2045

15,793

2,865

2,887

21,545

63.9

2.61

2050

19,101

3,363

3,499

25,964

66.3

2.70

2055

22,035

3,896

4,134

30,065

65.3

2.66

2060

25,258

4,526

4,762

34,546

63.7

2.58

- ·130 -

nivaKa~ 2.2 OAEE rrpo~oM rrapoxwv ava xcrnvopic 2008·2060 (EKaT.)

(Reform scenario)

napoxtl)

sror

r~paTOI)

AvaTTl]pial)

ETTI~WVTWV

rl,VOAO

(% TOU

% TOU

aC1(paAia1fJou

fJ1a90u)

AEn

2008

1,655

244

430

2,329

24.0

0.97

2009

1,647

267

444

2,357

24.0

0.99

2010

1,635

287

454

2,376

24.2

1.04

2011

1,637

309

466

2,411

24.9

1.09

2012

1,658

332

480

2,471

25.4

1.10

2013

1,734

363

506

2,603

25.7

1.11

2014

1,834

397

532

2,764

26.1

1.13

2015

1,954

432

561

2,947

26.7

1.16

2016

2,095

469

590

3,154

27.3

1.18

2017

2,243

507

621

3,372

27.9

1.20

2018

2,390

545

654

3,589

28.3

1.22

2019

2,547

583

687

3,817

28.6

1.24

2020

2,724

621

722

4,067

29.0

1.25

2025

3,820

830

915

5,565

32.0

1.37

2030

5,347

1,070

1,141

7,557

36.3

1.54

2035

7,273

1,342

1,399

10,014

40.5

1.71

2040

9,555

1,643

1,690

12,888

44.5

1.87

2045

11,976

1,960

2,004

15,941

47.7

2.00

2050

14,326

2,287

2,337

18,951

48.9

2.04

2055

16,338

2,634

2,685

21,657

47.7

1.99

2060

18,571

3,033

3,041

24,646

46.2

1.91

')Q

- 131 -

mVOKO~ 3.1

OAEE TTpo~oA~ XPlllJOTOOIKovOlJlKwv IJE:YE:9wv, 2008·2060 (E:KOT.)

(Status quo scenario)

ETor

EIO'q>OPE~

nOpOXE~

'EAA£ll.Il.Io

ET~O'IO 'EAAEII.II.IO

(% O'ToAEn)

2008

1,940

2,329

-388

0.16

2009

1,959

2,369

-410

0.17

2010

1,963

2,446

-483

0.20

2011

2,028

2,593

-564

0.24

2012

2,102

2,721

-619

0.26

2013

2,187

2,881

-693

0.27

2014

2,277

3,073

-797

0.30

2015

2,372

3,294

-922

0.34

2016

2,470

3,545

-1,075

0.38

2017

2,577

3,812

-1,236

0.41

2018

2,693

4,093

-1,400

0.45

2019

2,820

4,396

-1,576

0.48

2020

2,953

4,732

-1,779

0.52

2025

3,620

6,804

·3,184

0.75

2030

4,282

9,616

-5,334

1.04

2035

5,014

13,095

-8,081

1.33

2040

5,832

17,164

-11,332

1.59

2045

6,741

21,545

-14,805

1.79

2050

7,835

25,964

-18,129

1.88

2055

9,208

30,065

-20,857

1.84

2060

10,851

34,546

-23,695

1.77

- 132-

nivaKa<; 3.2 OAEE TTpO~OA~ xpl1lJaTOOIKoVO~IKWV IJEyeBwv, 2008·2060 (sxcr.)

(Reform scenario)

sroz

EIO'IjlOPE~

napoxt~

'EAAEllJlla

ET~O'IO 'Ei.A£lJ.lIlO

(% O'TO AEn)

2008

1,941

2,329

-388

0,16

2009

1,966

2,357

-391

0,16

2010

1,960

2,376

-416

0.18

2011

1,940

2,411

-471

0.21

2012

1,944

2,471

-527

0.23

2013

2,026

2,603

-577

0,25

2014

2,114

2,764

-649

0.27

2015

2,210

2,947

-737

0.29

2016

2,309

3,154

-845

0.32

2017

2,418

3,372

-954

0.34

2018

2,537

3,589

-1,053

0.36

2019

2,666

3,817

-1,151

0.37

2020

2,801

4,067

-1,266

0.39

2025

3,483

5,565

-2,082

0,51

2030

4,165

7,557

-3,392

0.69

2035

4,946

10,014

-5,068

0.86

2040

5,794

12,888

-7,094

1.03

2045

6,688

15,941

-9,253

1.16

2050

7,743

18,951

-11,208

1.21

2055

9,072

21,657

-12,585

1.16

2060

10,669

24,646

-13,977

1.08

- 133-

mvaKa~ 4.1

OAEE ~EiKT~~ napoxwv, 2008·2060

nivaKa~ 4.2

OAEE ~EiKTrl~ napoxwv, 2008·2060

(Status quo scenario)

(Reform scenario)

ETor

NEOI Luv/XOI

LUVOAO Luv/xwv

sror

NEOI Luv/XOI

LUVOAO Luv/xwv

r~paTo~

2008

82.7%

2008

82.6%

2009

113.7%

84.5%

2009

113.0%

84.1%

2010

115.2%

87.5%

2010

113.3%

85.4%

2011

114.1%

88.8%

2011

111.9%

86.6%

2012

116.1%

90.2%

2012

114.4%

88.8%

2013

119.7%

92.3%

2013

117.4%

90.5%

2014

123.0%

94.5%

2014

120.0%

92.4%

2015

124.7%

96.8%

2015

121.0%

94.2%

2016

125.5%

99.0%

2016

121.1%

96.0%

2017

124.9%

100.9%

2017

119.7%

97.3%

2018

124.9%

102.3%

2018

115.5%

97.9%

2019

124.2%

103.5%

2019

113.6%

98.2%

2020

123.2%

104.3%

2020

111.8%

98.1%

2025

116.2%

106.8%

2025

102.1%

95.8%

2030

112.8%

107.2%

2030

98.1%

92.6%

2035

109.3%

103.9%

2035

95.0%

87.7%

2040

106.5%

100.2%

2040

90.6%

83.0%

2045

105.6%

97.1%

2045

86.5%

78.6%

2050

102.2%

94.1%

2050

80.8%

74.3%

2055

95.7%

90.3%

2055

73)%

69.5%

2060

96.8%

87.3%

2060

74.1%

65.6%

-134 -

nivaKa<; A.5 npoUno6tUtl<; Yla TI<; Trpof)oAt<; TWV IJtyt9wv IKA

Status-quo

Reform

SVy\O'IIJOTnTQ

Rates crro TIt; TtAWraIEt;

Rates crro TIt; H:AWTaIEt;

EKTIIJt1UEIt;

tKTIIJt1o"tl~

Evtpyoi

rrxcimo 7TpoU7To6tatwv

7TAaIO"lO 7TPOU7To6tUtWV

Status-quo

Reform

2009

1.2'10

2010

2.0%

0.0'10

nAn6wpluJ,Jot;

2011

4.0'10

0.0'10

2012

2.0'10

0.0'10

2013

2.0'10

2009

napaywYIKOrnTa+nAn6wpluIJ6C;

n apaywYIKoTy\TQ+ n Ay\6wpluJ,JoC;

2010

n apaywYIKoTnTa+ n AI16wpluJ,JoC;

0.0'10

E~t"I~11

2011

n apaywYI KOTy\Ta+ n AI16wPI uJ,JOC;

0.0'10

MIa6wv

2012

n apaywYI KOTnTa+ n An6wp I uJ,JOC;

0.0'10

2013

napaywYIK6Ty\Ta+nAn6wpIUIJ6C;

n apaywYIKOrI1TQ+ n AI16wp I u1J6C;

A va7TpoUaplJoYt1

2009

nAl16wpluIJ6C;+ 0.5'10

nAl16wplulJ6C;

UUVTQ~tWV,

2010

nAl16wplulJ6C; + 0.5'10

0/0

tAclXlaTY\C; &

2011

nAI16wpluJ,J6C; + 0.5'10

0/0

J..ItYlaTnC;

2012

nAn6wpluJ,J6C; + 0.5'10

0/0

u0vTQ~I1C;

2013

nAn6wpluJ..I6C; + 0.5'10

nAy\6wpI0"J..I6C;

2009

20.0'10 & 23.6 '10

20.0/0 & 23.6'10

2010

20.0'10 & 23.6'10

Eluq>optc;

2011

20.0'10 & 23.6'10

21.0/0 & 24.6 '10

2012

20.0'10 & 23.6'10

22.0'10 & 25.6 '10

2013

20.0/0 & 23.6'10

23.0'10 & 26.6'10

A vcrrooocouovri L.UVTQ~ tWV

(2009-2012)

LuvTa~IJ..IOC;

A vcnpoccouovf LUVTQ~ EWV

MlaBoC;

E~tAI~11 MIa6wv

(2013+)

Ap18J..16c.; Enuv Yla TO

uUVTa~IJ..IO I.JlaB6

A VQ7TpOaapJ..I0yr1

E~tAI~n MlaBwv

E~tAI~11 Mlu6wv

Aa<p/KWV KaTYlYoplwV

Pu6lJot; ava7TTU~nt; AEn

ECOFIN- Baseline scenario

ECOFIN- Reform scenario

~ 135 -

nivaKar; A. 5 npoVrro6taEIr; Via nr; Trpof)oAtr; TWV IJ£V£6wv OAEE

Status-quo

Reform

E>VI1a1 ~oTI1Ta

Rates ano TI~ TEA£uTQiE~

Rates crro TI~ T£AwTaiu;

EKTI ~rlO'EI ~

EKTI~rlO'EI~

Evcovoi

nAaialo npoUnoetO'EUJv

nAaimo npoU1ToetO'EUJv

Status-quo

Reform

2009

1.210

1.2/0

2010

2.010

0.0/0

nAneUJplO'l-lo~

2011

4.010

0.0/0

2012

2.010

0.0/0

2013

2.010

2.0/0

2009

n apaYUJYIKoTrtTa+ n Al1eUJpIO'~o~

n apaYUJYI K6TI1Ta+ n Al1eUJpl O'~o~

2010

n apaYUJYIKoTI1Ta+ n Al1eUJpIO'~o~

0.0/0

E~tAI~rt

2011

n apaYUJYIKoTrtTa+ n Al1eUJpl O'l-lor;

0.0/0

MIa8wv

2012

n apaYUJYIKoTrtTa+ n Al1eUJp I O'~or;

0.0/0

2013

napaYUJYIKoTI1Ta+ nAl1eUJplO'l-lor;

n apaYUJYI K6 TI1Ta+ n ArteUJp I 0'1-10 ~

AvanpoO'ap~oYrl

2009

nArt6UJpIO'~6r;+ 0.510

nAl1ewpIO'~6r;

O'uvTa~ EUJV I

2010

nArteUJpIO'~or; + 0.510

0/0

EMX1aTl1t;; &

2011

nArt6UJpIO'~0r; + 0.510

0/0

I-ItYlaTl1~

2012

nArteUJplO'l-lor; + 0.510

0/0

O'UVTa~rtr;

2013

nArt6UJp1O'1-l6r; + 0.510

nAl1ewplO'l-lo~

EIO'c.popt~

2010

20/0

A vanpooapl-loYrl

E~tAI~rt MIa6wv

E~tAI~11 MIa8wv

AO'c.p/Kwv KaTrtyopll.iJv

puel-lo~ avanTu~l1r; AEn

ECOFIN- Baseline scenario

ECOFIN- Reform scenario

- 13(;--

Flcpcprnuc

Flcpcosivuoro LUVTa~EWV

- 131 -

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C"J

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L{)

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L{)

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·W

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L{)

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L{)

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w :::1. e l-

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ΣΗΜΕΙΩΜΑ ΕΘΝΙΚΗΣ ΑΝΑΛΟΓΙΣΤΙΚΗΣ ΑΡΧΗΣ ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΜΕ ΤΟΝ ΥΠΟ ΠΡΟΤΑΣΗ ΝΟΜΟ ΜΕΤΑΡΡΥΘΜΙΣΗΣ ΤΟΥ ΑΣΦΑΛΙΣΤΙΚΟΥ ΣΥΣΤΗΜΑΤΟΣ -ΙΟΥΝΙΟΣ 2010