This is post number 843: Good Evening, thank you to paying subscribers for — your continued support keeps this blog growing without advertising. Day 18 of 2026. Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Headline

Here comes the worst/coldest winter weather since the 1970s.

Snow fell this morning across Florida and Georgia — again! Thankfully it melted right away once the sun shined bright behind the cold front boundary.

Of course, we alerted you well in advance that there would be snowfall. It’s odd but on social media (X) there’s a contingency that reflexively downplays or discounts extreme weather forecasts as hyped or somehow defective. I think these folks are antiques and playing with yesterday’s tools.

Morning Low Temperatures Saturday — median from ECMWF Ensemble at 12z shows a large area of minus 20s and minus 30s across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Not joking.

As this is the middle ground solution, it could certainly trend even colder to the minus 30s across Lower Michigan. I saw Grand Rapids with -31°F which would shatter the all-time cold record by 7°F.

We’re dealing with the “almost” coldest possible air mass for North America into late January descending out of the Canadian Arctic with assistance from Siberia. This will be a long duration period of extreme cold largely in 2 major waves this coming weekend, and then the next. However, even before we get to the major blasts — the upcoming week will feature very cold temperatures in the Midwest and Great Lakes, which means the Lake Effect Snow machine continues unloading.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

The eruption of cold from the polar vortex anomaly in southern Canada around Hudson Bay is unbelievable. The thickness anomaly in the next 6-days shows the “pendulum” or “wrecking ball” dipping into the Midwest and Great Lakes into this coming weekend. However, there is another “appendage” or PV anomaly joining the fray from the North Pole into Yukon, Canada. That one could be even more impactful and colder into Days 11-14.

Lower 48 | Low Temperatures through Next Tuesday January 27, 2026

The Blend of Models (v5.0) is rather smooth and is likely underestimating the intensity of the cold next weekend further north. We’ll use this as a baseline going forward in the forecast process.

ECMWF 18z | Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

Extremely cold air intensifies in southern Canada and then floods southward into the Lower 48 — and now into Texas by Saturday with potential of a major ice storm as subtropical moisture overruns the Arctic air.

Overall, this is a very large area of upwards of 40°F below normal temperatures.