Category Predictions

Iowa CFP odds jump to 57% on Kalshi as a 24-team playoff plan reshapes a five-season contract. A Kalshi market asking whether Iowa will qualify for the College Football Playoff after issuance and before the 2030-31 season was priced at…

Traders Just Piled Into the “Avengers: Doomsday” Box Office Record Market, and It Sits at 43%. A Manifold market asking whether Avengers: Doomsday will post the biggest opening weekend of all time trades at 43% implied probability as of October…

Traders Give 58% Odds the Worst Cyber Day of 2026 Is Still Ahead. A Manifold Markets contract asking whether the worst day in cyber security in 2026 will fall after October 21 is trading at roughly 58% implied probability of…

Last Week Tonight Bet Falls From 76% to 10% in a Day. A Manifold market asking whether a single news story will be featured on HBO’s “Last Week Tonight” opened at roughly 50% on October 23, spiked to 76% within…

Traders Just Piled Into Musk’s SpaceX Giveaway Bet, and the Odds Sit at a Coin Flip. A Manifold market asking whether Elon Musk “actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027” exploded this week, with roughly 70%…

Jacob Elordi’s Next-Bond Odds Jump +10 Points in a Day on Kalshi. A contract asking “Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?” traded at roughly 17 percent implied probability of yes on Kalshi as of October 21, 2026, up…

A Kalshi contract on the best large language model at the end of the decade just lit up. As of October 20, 2026, the market reads a 63% implied probability of YES, after a 24-hour swing of roughly +63 points…

The offbeat market everyone is betting on: “Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?”. A Manifold market asking whether the S&P 500 will finish higher in 2026 is sitting at roughly 94% implied probability of YES as of October 19, 2026,…

S&P 500 to 10,000 by 2029? A Kalshi market just jumped to 65% odds. A contract asking whether the S&P 500 will trade above 10,000 before December 31, 2029 is pricing a 65% chance of yes as of October 19,…

Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2040? A long-dormant question on the prediction platform Manifold has turned into one of this week’s busiest trades, sitting at a 50% implied probability of YES as of October 18, 2026.…

Manifold traders pile into a 26% bet on whether ‘Sun’ gets a girlfriend by October 2027. A small, self-referential play-money market on Manifold has become one of the platform’s busiest contracts this week, with traders putting the odds of a…

Yang-Mills “Solved Next Before 2045?” Odds Jump 20 Points on Kalshi Amid an AI Math Frenzy. A thinly traded Kalshi contract on whether the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem will be the next Clay Millennium Prize Problem solved before…

Elon Musk’s Flying Car Bet: Why Traders Piled Into a Manifold Market at 59%. A prediction market asking whether Elon Musk will officially announce a flying car by the end of 2026 has suddenly lit up, sitting at a 59%…

Traders just flooded a Manifold market on whether Nidal Hasan’s execution will be livestreamed, and they are betting almost entirely on “No.” The contract sits at a 2% implied probability of “Yes” as of October 16, 2026, after a single…

Tulane CFP Odds Swing +35 Points on Kalshi: What Moved the Market. A thinly traded Kalshi contract on whether Tulane will ever reach the College Football Playoff through the 2030-31 season jumped to about 35% implied probability of YES as…