Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers fell short in their pursuit of a three-peat but the roster is still loaded with talent for another run in 2027.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $490MM through 2033 ($68MM deferred annually)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: $248MM through 2035 (Yamamoto has conditional opt-outs after 2029 and 2031)
- Mookie Betts, SS: $205MM through 2032 (including $35MM of signing bonus still owed; $65MM of remaining salary deferred)
- Kyle Tucker, OF: $185MM through 2029 (including $10MM of signing bonus still owed; $10MM of salary deferred annually; last two years are player options)
- Blake Snell, LHP: $78MM through 2029 ($13.2MM deferred annually; deal includes conditional 2030 club option)
- Will Smith, C: $70.45MM through 2033 ($5MM deferred annually)
- Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $51.5625MM through 2028 (final year is club/player option)
- Edwin Díaz, RHP: $46MM through 2028 ($4.5MM deferred annually; deal includes conditional 2029 club option)
- Tanner Scott, LHP: $40MM through 2028 (including $10MM of signing bonus still owed; $5.25MM of salary deferred annually; includes conditional 2029 club option)
- Tommy Edman, IF/OF: $39.75MM through 2029 (including buyout of 2030 club option; $6.25MM of salary deferred annually)
- Freddie Freeman, 1B: $27MM through 2027 ($12MM deferred)
- Teoscar Hernández, OF: $21MM through 2027 (includes $6.5MM buyout on 2028 club option; $8MM of salary deferred; deal has conditional 2029 club option)
- Max Muncy, 3B: $13.75MM through 2027 (including buyout of 2028 club option)
- Hyeseong Kim, IF/OF: $5.25MM through 2027 (including buyout of 2028 club option)
Option Decisions
- None
2027 financial commitments: $362.25MM ($142.2MM deferred)
Total future commitments: $1.52 billion
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Brock Stewart (5.093): $1.8MM
- Jake Cousins (4.091): $1MM
- Alex Call (3.161): $1.9MM
- Emmet Sheehan (3.063): $2.1MM
- Gavin Stone (3.034): $1.2MM
- Andy Pages (2.155): $4.9MM
Non-tender candidates: Cousins, Call, Stone
Free Agents
- Tarik Skubal, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Kris Bubic, Eric Lauer, Brusdar Graterol, Miguel Rojas (retired), Enrique Hernández
The area with the most uncertainty for the Dodgers is the pitching staff. Shohei Ohtani was injured for the second half of the 2026 season. His last appearance on the mound was July 3. He continued hitting but his results were way below his usual level of production.
Ohtani is going to avoid surgery and the expectation is that he will be fully healthy for next year. There may come a time where he’s no longer a two-way player but the plan is for him to continue doing both in 2027. What’s unclear right now is if the injury-marred 2026 leads to a different plan of attack from Ohtani and the Dodgers. Will they aim for a full starter’s workload or something different?
Deadline pickup Tarik Skubal is headed to free agency, which is another question for the rotation. The Dodgers will surely have interest in re-signing him and will be one of the favorites. They are generally in the mix for all top talents on the open market and have signed many of them over the years.
Bringing Skubal back might require the Dodgers to go to an area they usually try to avoid. Even though they have signed many big contracts over the years, they usually avoid really long deals except for special circumstances. They have signed dozens of free agents to eight-figure deals over the past decade, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, but only two of those were longer than six years. Those were both special circumstances. One was for Ohtani, who is a unicorn player. The other was for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was available at the unusually young age of 25.
The Dodgers usually prefer to stay in the mix on a free agent and hope he becomes willing to do a shorter deal. That’s what happened with Kyle Tucker last year. This approach has been described as “hanging around the backboard.” If a player has the juice to get a really long deal, it’s usually with someone other than the Dodgers. 21 free agents have signed deals of seven years or longer in the past decade. The Dodgers got Ohtani and Yamamoto, but Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Dylan Cease and plenty of others signed elsewhere.
Skubal should be able to surpass the seven years Cease got. Fried got eight years and Cole got nine. Skubal will be 30 next month, one year older than Cole was but one year younger than Fried, so either an eight- or nine-year deal should be possible. Would the Dodgers do something like that? Is there some way they could convince Skubal to do a Tucker-style short-term deal with opt-outs?
Even without Ohtani or Skubal, it’s not as though the rotation is in bad shape. They have Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow in three spots. Snell and Glasnow have been fairly injury prone but finished the 2026 season healthy. Roki Sasaki had an encouraging campaign and will look to build on that next year. Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack, Ben Casparius and others will be in the mix for a spot. Prospect Christian Zazueta will get a roster spot this winter to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Adam Serwinowski, Jackson Ferris and others could get roster spots as well. Gavin Stone could be in the mix but he missed almost all of 2026 with shoulder problems, so there’s a chance the Dodgers don’t tender him an arbitration contract.
With all those arms, plus Ohtani, the Dodgers don’t really need to go after Skubal. But that was also the case at the 2026 deadline and they decided to go for it. They also don’t really have another obvious target for the offseason. The bullpen will need some work but the position player group is largely set.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
After another postseason letdown, the Yankees will focus on rebuilding the bullpen and figuring out how to remake a one-dimensional offense.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Aaron Judge, OF: $200MM through 2031
- Max Fried, SP: $174MM through 2032
- Cody Bellinger, OF: $110MM through 2030 (can opt out after 2027 and 2028 seasons)
- Gerrit Cole, SP: $72MM through 2028
- Carlos Rodon, SP: $54MM through 2028
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $35MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins covering $20MM of remaining salary)
- Ryan McMahon, 3B: $16MM through 2027
2027 guarantees: $205.5MM
Total future commitments: $661MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Clarke Schmidt (5.148): $4.5MM
- Luis García Jr. (5.142): $11MM
- Ryan Weathers (4.066): $3.1MM
- Fernando Cruz (4.035): $2.3MM
- José Caballero (3.170): $3.7MM
- Anthony Volpe (3.142): $4MM
- Luis Gil (3.119): $2.3MM
- Heliot Ramos (3.103): $3.2MM
- Austin Wells (3.031): $2.6MM
- Non-tender candidates: Cruz, Ramos
Free Agents
- David Bednar, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Blackburn, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber, Tim Hill, Amed Rosario, Michael Fulmer
The 2025 season saw the Yankees win 94 games, defeat the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, and lose to the AL East champion Blue Jays in the ALDS. 2026 was almost a case of deja vu, as this year’s Bronx Bombers won 93 games, again topped Boston in the ALWCS, and then lost to the AL East champion Rays in the ALDS.
The chief difference between the two seasons was Aaron Judge was limited to only 66 games this year. After suffering a stress fracture in his right ribcage on April 26, Judge initially seemed fine playing through the pain, but he had only a .528 OPS over his last 51 plate appearances before he was finally placed on the 10-day injured list on June 2. Judge didn’t return until September 8, and he then delivered only a .513 OPS in 24 PA over seven games before sustaining a right calf strain. This final injury sidelined Judge for the rest of the regular season and the entire postseason.
Even with these two cold stretches, Judge still hit .241/.360/.511 with 18 homers over 285 total PA, and his 140 wRC+ ranked 13th in baseball among players with at least 250 trips to the plate. The glass half-full view is simple — if Judge had been healthy, maybe that alone might’ve been enough to get the Yankees though a watered-down American League and at least back to the World Series.
The more pessimistic view of the 2026 campaign is also straight-forward. Judge’s absence exposed the faults in the team’s lineup, as New York’s offense vanished almost the moment Judge hit the IL. The Yankees’ 116 team wRC+ ranked second in the league through May 31, but from June 1 until season’s end, only five teams produced less than New York’s 93 wRC+.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you’ve all had a good week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let’s get it going
BB
- Do you think Sato, Ralphy Velazquez, or Emmanuel Rodriquez will be valuable in 2027?
Anthony Franco
- I think Ralphy will be, more skeptical on the other two
Attic Wombat
- I read that there might be a free agent signing frenzy before the lockout deadline. Can you imagine any possible resolution that could make jumping in early a bad move?
Breaker
- What are the latest rumors about the lockout? Is there any kind of a frame work or anything in place.
SandyG
- Hey Anthony, Thanks for the chat! Do you believe the conventional wisdom that we will see a pre-lockout frenzy of free agent signings? And where do you predict Skubal will sign?
Anthony Franco
- There’ll be a lockout, there’s not going to be any kind of framework in place until late February or early March in the best case scenario. Neither side has much incentive to move off their asks until there’s an actual threat of losing games
- I do expect a frenzy, though not to the same extent as ’21 because this free agent class isn’t good. I don’t really expect the CBA structure to immediately make any of the November free agent/trade activity look bad
- The only concern I could really see is that a team signs Skubal for like $50MM+ annually and then the cap comes along and they have to find other ways to cut spending to comply, but there’d be at least a one- or two-year grace period for the huge spenders to get under anyway
Sandy at 90
- Chances Skubal signs with LAD before lockout on Dec 1.
Anthony Franco
- As for Skubal, I guess right now I’d lean Mets but do expect him to sign pre-lockout and obviously wouldn’t be surprised if he stays in LA
Rusty Shackleford
- Will Warren seems prime trade bait to me. Young controllable pitcher for young controllable bat. Where is a good destination?
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians again rode another strong September to their third straight AL Central title. They nabbed a first-round bye and overcame a 2-0 deficit to bounce the White Sox en route to the ALCS. Cleveland looked generally overmatched against the best team in the American League, though, and they again face questions about whether there’s enough offensive talent to truly rank among World Series contenders.
Guaranteed Contracts
- 3B José Ramírez: $150MM through 2032 ($60MM deferred between 2036-51)
- RHP Tanner Bibee: $39MM through 2029 (including buyout of ’30 club option)
Option Decisions
- Team holds $10MM option on RHP Emmanuel Clase ($2MM buyout; Clase remains on unpaid leave)
- Team holds $7.25MM option on RHP Trevor Stephan ($1.25MM buyout)
- Team, RHP Shawn Armstrong hold $8MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Additional Financial Commitment: Owe $1.75MM to Blue Jays as condition of 2025 Myles Straw trade
2027 guarantees: $36.5MM ($10MM deferred)
Total future commitments: $193.5MM plus deferrals owed to Ramírez
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jo Adell (5.085): $9.6MM
- Steven Kwan (5.000): $11.3MM
- Colin Holderman (4.108): $2.3MM
- David Fry (3.154): $1.9MM
- Matt Festa (3.153): $1.5MM
- Patrick Bailey (3.136): $2.3MM
- Gavin Williams (3.103): $4.8MM
- Blake Perkins (3.075): $900K
- Hunter Gaddis (3.073): $2.2MM
- Tim Herrin (3.058): $1.3MM
- Brayan Rocchio (3.001): $3.1MM
- Cade Smith (3.000): $5.5MM
- Slade Cecconi (2.155): $2MM
Non-tender candidates: Adell, Fry, Perkins
Free Agents
- Foster Griffin, Rhys Hoskins, Austin Hedges, Shawn Armstrong, Nathaniel Lowe, Connor Brogdon (minor league), Carlos Hernández (minor league)
Three teams are riding a streak of three or more consecutive division titles: the Dodgers (five), Brewers (four), and Guardians (three). Among American League teams, only the Yankees have a better record than Cleveland since the start of 2024. The Guardians have twice played for the American League pennant in that span, though they were bounced by New York and Tampa Bay, respectively.
Cleveland has had a high floor, anchored by having a future Hall of Famer playing on a series of below-market contracts and their pitching development. Yet they’ve also been hamstrung by payroll limitations that annually leave them with a weak bottom half of the lineup. Cleveland has respectively ranked 28th and 24th in scoring over the last two seasons. Rays pitching held them to 18 runs over six games in the ALCS, where Chase DeLauter was their only real source of offense.
Some of the scoring deficiency is by choice. Cleveland’s front office is content to punt offense from the catcher position, for instance. They clearly believe that’s a big reason they’re routinely among the best in the league at run prevention. That’s fine as long as they’re getting production elsewhere in the lineup, but Cleveland hasn’t gotten enough from first base and the outfield. The middle infield was an issue before the 2026 season as well, though that’s in better position now thanks to a pair of talented rookies.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have snagged playoff spots in two straight years but have been quickly dispatched both times. In 2027, they will need several players to bounce back from injury, but will also have to make plenty of decisions before then.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Garrett Crochet, LHP: $142MM through 2031 (deal includes club option for 2032)
- Roman Anthony, OF: $123MM through 2033 (deal includes club option for 2034)
- Ranger Suarez, LHP: $120MM through 2030 (including buyout of 2031 mutual option)
- Kristian Campbell, OF: $55MM through 2032 (including buyout of 2033 club option)
- Brayan Bello, RHP: $44.5MM through 2029 (including buyout of 2030 club option)
- Ceddanne Rafaela, OF: $44MM through 2031 (including buyout of 2032 club option)
- Trevor Story, SS: $30MM through 2027 (including buyout of 2028 club option)
- Willson Contreras, 1B: $24.5MM through 2027 (including buyout of 2028 club option)
- Masataka Yoshida, OF/DH: $18MM through 2027
- Aroldis Chapman, LHP: $13MM through 2027 (salary could increase by up to $1MM based on Reliever of the Year vote)
Option Decisions
- Sonny Gray, RHP: $30MM mutual option with $10MM buyout
- Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $8.25MM club option with $1MM buyout (deal also contains 2028 club option)
2027 financial commitments: $158.5MM
Total future commitments: $625MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Tanner Houck (5.100): $4.1MM
- Johan Oviedo (5.079): $1.8MM
- Adley Rutschman (5.000): $9.1MM
- Jarren Duran (4.155): $11.1MM
- Eli White (4.140): $1.4MM
- Kutter Crawford (4.136): $2.8MM
- Connor Wong (4.079): $2MM
- Romy González (4.044): $1.8MM
- Triston Casas (4.032): $1.7MM
- Andruw Monasterio (3.099): $1.6MM
- Zack Kelly (3.080): $800K
- Greg Weissert (3.079): $1.2MM
- Wilyer Abreu (3.041): $4.6MM
- Erik Miller (3.000): $1.5MM
- Justin Slaten (3.000): $1.2MM
- Jahmai Jones (2.148): $900K
- Tyron Guerrero (2.133): $1.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Houck, Oviedo, White, Crawford, Wong, González, Casas, Monasterio, Kelly, Jones
Free Agents
In a sense, the 2026 season was a bit of a letdown for the Red Sox. They made the postseason in 2025. Garrett Crochet established himself as an ace. Youngsters Roman Anthony, Payton Tolle and Connelly Early made their debuts and gave the club an exciting wave of young talent. The Sox had an aggressive offseason heading into 2026, hoping to move up to the next level. They gave a nine-figure deal to Ranger Suarez. They acquired Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras from the Cardinals.
Unfortunately, they didn’t end up making any progress. Their win total dropped by two, going from 89 to 87. They still made the playoffs but with essentially the same disappointing result. In 2025, they had at least pushed their Wild Card matchup with the Yankees to three games. In 2026, they were handily dismissed. They again faced the Yankees but were swept this time, losing the two games by a combined 18-2 score.
It was a deflating result. If one wanted to be optimistic, they could point out that the Sox worked around a large number of injuries. Crochet made only six starts due to shoulder issues. A hand/wrist situation limited Anthony to just 55 games. Contreras was on the injured list for half of September due to a hamstring strain. He was off the IL for the second half but got hit on the hand by a pitch and missed more than a week. Trevor Story had a nice bounceback season in 2025 but hernia surgery limited him to 64 games of limp production in 2026.
Even the midseason reinforcements got hurt. Curtis Mead was picked up at the deadline but was hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in his first game for Boston. Catcher Adley Rutschman was on the IL with wrist inflammation when he was acquired. He came off the IL but had to manage a hyperextended elbow down the stretch.
In a sense, it’s somewhat encouraging that the Sox managed to win 87 games while missing so many key contributors. But in 2027, they will need to get those guys back. On top of that, they will need to bolster the roster around the guys who are staying.
This offseason, the oft-discussed outfield shake-up might be finally coming. For a while now, the Sox have been trying to find playing time for Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida. That logjam was mostly a non-issue in 2026 as Anthony’s injury opened things up but it’s still a crowded picture on paper.
There are some pressure points squeezing Duran at the moment. He has shown huge upside in the past but is coming off an awful season. It feels a bit strange to say that about a 20-20 campaign but it’s somehow true. His 6.7% walk rate was a drop of almost two points compared to last year. His 27.1% strikeout rate was his worst in a full season.
He finished the campaign with a .207/.266/.361 line and 69 wRC+, indicating he was 31% worse than the league average hitter. His .252 batting average on balls in play was well south of average and his previous seasons. That can sometimes indicate bad luck but Duran’s batted ball data all moved in the wrong direction. His hard hit rate went from 46.8% in 2025 to 39.9% this year. His average exit velocity dropped from 91.8 miles per hour to 89.6.
As a Super Two guy, he has already had two arbitration seasons and can be retained for two more. But he already pushed his salary to $7.7MM in 2026. The arb process has historically focused on more traditional stats than advanced ones, so he’s projected for a healthy raise to $11.1MM in 2027. That’s a lot of money for a guy who is coming off a down season and battling for playing time with several other outfielders.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres
The Padres find themselves in a familiar spot. They just wrapped another season that was good but not good enough. They have a decent roster but a huge chunk of the payroll is tied up in the core while the rotation has a number of holes.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Manny Machado, 3B: $280MM through 2033 (including $35MM of signing bonus still owed)
- Fernando Tatis Jr., IF/OF: $266MM through 2034
- Xander Bogaerts, SS: $175MM through 2033
- Jackson Merrill, OF: $135MM through 2034 (including $6MM of signing bonus still owed)
- Michael King, RHP: $66MM through 2028 (including $8MM of signing bonus still owed)
- Jake Cronenworth, IF/OF: $48MM through 2030
- Joe Musgrove, RHP: $20MM through 2027
- Yuki Matsui, LHP: $13.5MM through 2028 (Matsui may opt out after 2026 or 2027)
- Sung-Mun Song, IF: $12MM through 2029 (including remaining signing bonus and buyout on 2030 mutual option; can opt out after 2028)
- Wandy Peralta, LHP: $4.45MM player option for 2027
Option Decisions
- Michael King, RHP: $28MM player option with $5MM buyout; deal also has $30MM player option for 2028
- Nick Pivetta, RHP: $14MM club option (deal also includes $18MM player option for 2028)
- Yuki Matsui, LHP: may opt out of remaining two years and $13.5MM; can also opt out after 2027
- Miguel Andujar, IF/OF: $8MM mutual option with $2.9MM buyout
- Lucas Giolito, RHP: $8MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout
- Griffin Canning, RHP: $5MM mutual option with $1.8MM buyout
- Wandy Peralta, LHP: $4.45MM player option for 2027
- Kyle Hart, LHP: $2.5MM club option with $200K buyout
Additional Commitments
- $750K buyout on 2027 mutual option for RHP Germán Márquez
2027 financial commitments: $180.1MM
Total future commitments: $1.0271 billion
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Gavin Sheets (5.076): $6.5MM
- Luis Campusano (4.003): $1.7MM
- Mason Miller (3.166): $8.1MM
- Freddy Fermin (3.165): $2.6MM
- Bryan Hoeing (3.133): $800K
- JP Sears (3.108): $2.8MM
- Jeremiah Estrada (3.069): $1.3MM
- Jhony Brito (2.138): $800K
Non-tender candidates: Hoeing, Sears
Free Agents
- Robbie Ray, Ramon Laureano, Walker Buehler, Ty France, Luis Rengifo, Austin Hays, Jason Adam, Casey Mize, Adrián Morejón, Miguel Andujar, Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning
The Padres had a flat 48-48 record in the first half. They got hot at a good time, going 43-23 in the second half. That got them the top Wild Card spot in the National League. They quickly ran through the Cubs but then got flattened by the Brewers.
For 2027, the goal will be to get back to the postseason once again. There’s some turnover on the position player side but a lot of the lineup will be returning. The bullpen could lose a few guys to free agency but still should be in decent shape. The primary focus will be on the rotation, which has been the case for a few years now.
Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize are headed to free agency. Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito should be considered impending free agents as well, even though their deals contain mutual options. It’s been over a decade since a mutual option was picked up by both sides. They are just accounting measures to kick some of the payment to the end of the season as a de facto deferral. Michael King has an opt-out he will surely take. The Padres will have to decide on a club option for Nick Pivetta.
That leaves them with an on-paper rotation of Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears and Jhony Brito. Musgrove isn’t even a guarantee to be a starter next year after missing both the 2025 and 2026 seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He did log three postseason innings this year but jumping back up to a full workload next year is probably expecting too much, something that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently admitted.
Vásquez had a decent earned run average this year but worked around a 14.8% strikeout rate. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched this year, only Tomoyuki Sugano of the Rockies was lower. Sears spent most of 2026 in Triple-A, where he posted a 7.49 ERA. Brito also spent most of the year in the minors and his 2.97 ERA was good but he worked around a low 16.2% strikeout rate. The Padres will need to add multiple arms.
The major unknown right now is what kind of resources the front office will have to work with. Under Peter Seidler, payroll kept going up but peaked in 2023. After his passing, the club scaled back a bit. That had various knock-on effects.
Juan Soto was traded to the Yankees, both to cut costs and also bring in some extra rotation depth. Various other trades have depleted the farm system. The Padres have continued to sign free agents but often with creative accounting measures. The Nick Pivetta and King deals both featured backloaded salaries and opt-outs. The deals for Germán Márquez, Canning and Giolito had mutual option buyouts to delay some of the payments.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Exciting time on the baseball calendar, let’s get rolling
$
- That’s such a great result for talent and tenacity over payroll. Let keep all appendages crossed that the momentum doesn’t get lost with a lockout that affects 2027! Were the Dodgers simply outplayed,was it injuries at the wrong time of is it just baseball over 4 games?
Brewer Fan
- Should Jesus Made be the opening day starter at 3rd in 2027?PSYCH WHO CARES ABOUT 2027 THE BREWERS ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anthony Franco
- Handily outplayed. This Brewers team is just really good
- Obviously the Dodgers would’ve put forth a better showing if Ohtani were fully healthy but Milwaukee was the better team all year and has a lot more juice top to bottom in the lineup — plus the developments of Misiorowski and Henderson — than they did in 2025
JeffyM82
- What does a Freddy Peralta’s next contract look like? How much will the next couple days or weeks impact the years and AAV compared to his Mets numbers
- Is Michael King’s contract a decent comp for Freddy Peralta this winter? 3/75 with opt outs after each year?
Anthony Franco
- I think he’d beat 3/75 if he wanted the opt out route — probably mid-high 80s — but it seemed like he prioritized long-term security with the Mets and I think he’s back to having five or six years out there if he wants it
- I still wouldn’t want to be the team that makes that deal, but he’s a 30-year-old starter with premium durability who at least looks like a strong #3 after the pitch adjustments with the Rays and has the borderline ace track record. I think someone’s going to pay him
Ghost of Ebbits Field
- “Hope all is well” Not for the Dodgers. So what do they do.
Anthony Franco
- Don’t think there’s much to be done with the lineup beyond finding someone to take a little bit of the Teoscar money off their hands and turning LF to De Paula
- Need Ohtani to be healthier next postseason. A little concerned about Freddie’s lack of power becoming a legitimate issue at this point but he’s down to the final year on his deal anyway
- TBD on Skubal since they’re being very cagey about Walter’s financial situation. Not like they’d necessarily need to bring in another starter this offseason if he walks. Re-sign one of Phillips or Vesia
Greg
- With a good young core of hitting in place, can you see the Rockies making any meaningful splashes in the FA pitching market? They have not much on the payroll moving forward.
Anthony Franco
- No I think it’ll look pretty similar to last winter. They’re still not there yet and this is a bad FA class to start throwing money around too early
RCAM
- What does a Reed Detmers deal look like this offseason? Asking for the Orioles, but also in general.
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
The Braves won the NL East and defeated the Phillies in the wild card round before falling to the Dodgers in the NLDS. It was a nice return to form for the Braves after their injury-marred 76-86 season in 2025, but Atlanta will need to fill some roster holes and perhaps address some broader concerns in order to be championship contenders next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Austin Riley, 3B: $132MM through 2032 ($20MM club option for 2033)
- Matt Olson, 1B: $66MM through 2029 ($20MM club option for 2030)
- Spencer Strider, SP: $49MM through 2028 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2029)
- Michael Harris II, CF: $46MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2031; Braves also have $20MM club option for 2032 with $5MM buyout)
- Robert Suarez, RP: $32MM through 2028
- Sean Murphy, C: $30MM through 2028 ($15MM club option for 2029)
- Chris Sale, SP: $27MM through 2027 ($30MM club option for 2028)
- Jurickson Profar, LF: $15MM through 2027
- Mike Yastrzemski, OF: $10MM through 2027 ($7MM club option for 2028 with $4MM buyout)
- Reynaldo Lopez, SP/RP: $8MM through 2027
Option Decisions
- Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $17MM club option for 2027, $10MM buyout (Braves also have $17MM club option for 2028)
- Ozzie Albies, 2B: $7MM club option for 2027
2027 guarantees: $190MM (assuming the Acuna/Albies options are exercised)
Total future commitments: $439MM (assuming the Acuna/Albies options are exercised)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Dylan Lee (4.150): $4.2MM
- James Karinchak (4.130): $1.1MM
- Joey Wentz (3.166): $900K
- Michael Grove (3.122): $1MM
- Bryce Elder (3.069): $4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Karinchak, Wentz, Grove
Free Agents
- Raisel Iglesias, Tyler Mahle, Martin Perez, Mauricio Dubon, Dominic Smith, Brent Suter, Ha-Seong Kim, Lane Thomas, Kyle Farmer, Joe Jimenez, Luke Williams
Most of Atlanta’s everyday lineup should remain intact. Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ronald Acuna Jr. are all on track to return to their regular positions in 2027, plus Mike Yastrzemski will probably be part of the corner outfield picture in a platoon capacity. The Braves are surely going to exercise Acuna’s $17MM option and seem likely to pick up the affordable $7MM sum on Albies despite his third straight middling offensive season.
Acuna was excellent in 2025 after his return from a torn ACL, but the 2026 campaign saw the former NL MVP’s numbers dip to .255/.345/.451 with 20 homers over 469 plate appearances. Most players would happily take this kind of 120 wRC+ “down year” any day, and Acuna’s production might’ve been better if he weren’t limited to 107 games by a pair of left hamstring strains. He also battled a sore right knee during the playoffs, which partially explains his lackluster postseason performance.
Even if Acuna replicates this modest season by (his high standards) in 2027, that is still well worth the $7MM difference between his option price and the $10MM buyout, not to mention the remaining club option Atlanta holds on his services for 2028. There have been a few whispers that the Braves might consider trading Acuna while his value is still so relatively high, but as Acuna’s 2025 production indicates, he still has All-Star level upside even after tears of both ACLs. Even if Acuna’s health might have to be maintained by a few more DH days in 2027, the Braves would surely prefer that if Acuna is able to return to anything close to peak form, it happens in their uniform.
Albies is a bit of a trickier case. He has an 89 wRC+ and a .242/.300/.385 slash line over 1785 PA since Opening Day 2024, with this uninspiring offense combining with so-so glovework to give him a total of 3.8 fWAR over the last three seasons.
This recent track record notwithstanding, Albies’ salary is small enough that multiple teams would be interested if the Braves shopped him, and some suitors might feel he’d benefit from a change of scenery. Albies is slated for free agency next winter so the Braves could be interested in getting something before Albies leaves. On the flip side, Atlanta might just prefer sticking with a familiar face at second base for one more year, especially given the more glaring hole on the other side of the middle infield picture.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox became the first team ever to follow three consecutive 100-loss seasons with a playoff berth. They knocked out the Astros for their first series win in two decades in the Wild Card Series. It was an excellent season relative to expectations, though they surely feel they squandered an opportunity by failing to close out the Guardians after taking a 2-0 lead in the ALDS. How aggressive are ownership and the front office going to be to supplement a talented position player core?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Luis Castillo, RHP: $22.75MM through 2027 (deal includes ’28 vesting option at 180 innings)
- Munetaka Murakami, 1B: $17MM through 2027
- Andrew Benintendi, DH/LF: $14.5MM through 2027
- Jordan Hicks, RHP: $12MM through 2027
- Anthony Kay, LHP: $7MM through 2027 (including buyout of ’28 mutual option)
Option Decisions
- None
2027 financial commitments: $71.25MM
Total future commitments: $73.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Joey Bart (5.020): $2.9MM
- Huascar Brazobán (3.170): $1.6MM
- Brenton Doyle (3.161): $3.6MM
- Miguel Vargas (3.101): $5.4MM
- Chris Murphy (3.055): $900K
- Jordan Leasure (2.161): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Bart, Murphy, Leasure
Free Agents
The White Sox entered the 2026 season in a rebuild. Despite a sour finish to the ALDS, in which they set an all-time record by striking out 21 times in a nine-inning shutout at the hands of Gavin Williams and three relievers, they’ve arrived. Now comes the hard part — elevating from talented upstarts to legitimate contenders.
Most of the work will be on the pitching staff. General manager Chris Getz acknowledged as much in his end-of-season press conference on Wednesday, not that Sox fans wouldn’t have known that either way. Chicago’s rotation was their weakest link all year and found itself in shambles by the playoffs. Sean Burke was their only reliable starter by season’s end. Everything else was a ‘Johnny Wholestaff’ game.
Even Burke tailed off a little bit down the stretch, but he was one of the better pitchers in the American League for most of the summer. He took the mantle of 2026 White Sox’ breakout starter, one which initially seemed would fall to Davis Martin. The Texas Tech product had a dominant 11 start run through May, then fell apart with a 5.63 ERA over his final 18 appearances.
Getz said that Martin was bothered by a right calf issue that probably had an adverse impact on his performance. His rotation spot still seems secure, but he’s hardly a sure thing to produce. The Sox need only look to their 2026 Opening Day starter, Shane Smith, as an example of how quickly things can go off the rails. Smith went from an All-Star rookie season to starting three MLB games this year, allowing 12 runs in 8 1/3 innings. He spent the remainder of the year in Triple-A, posting a 5.57 ERA with a 16% walk rate to plummet down the depth chart.
The rotation need was obvious enough that the Sox made what they believed was a stabilizing trade at the deadline. Chicago assumed Luis Castillo’s $22.75MM salary for next season in a trade that sent minor league catcher Boston Smith to Seattle. They offset some of the money by dumping the immediately ill-advised Seranthony Domínguez contract on the Mariners.
It was a buy-low move at the time, as Castillo carried a 5.06 ERA across 20 appearances. It nevertheless made a decent amount of sense. Castillo was clearly the odd man out with the M’s but should’ve provided some reliability for a pitching staff that desperately needed it. By eating next year’s salary, the Sox were able to make the move without paying much of a prospect cost. (Smith has good minor league numbers but hasn’t garnered much favor from scouts.)
Unfortunately, the early returns couldn’t have gone much worse. Castillo not only didn’t bounce back, he actively regressed. His velocity plummeted and he moved to the bullpen before being shut down with a shoulder impingement. Next year’s salary suddenly looks pretty far underwater, as it’s tough to imagine Castillo would command more than $8-10MM on a one-year deal if he were a free agent this winter. There’s also a vesting option for 2028, but the Sox presumably aren’t going to let him approach the necessary 180 innings next season unless his performance markedly improves.
Chicago would surely like a mulligan and should have Castillo’s name out there on the offseason trade market. It’s unlikely they’d find interest outside of another bad contract swap, so he’ll probably remain with the team into Spring Training. Castillo is penciled into a rotation spot for now but may not be among their top five arms come Opening Day.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles fell short of expectations in 2026. They sold at the deadline but it doesn’t appear they are kicking off any kind of rebuild. Assuming they plan to return to contention in 2027, there are many questions to be answered.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Pete Alonso, 1B: $124MM through 2030
- Kyle Bradish, RHP: $90MM through 2031
- Shane Baz, RHP: $63MM through 2030
- Samuel Basallo, C/1B: $61MM through 2033 (includes buyout of 2034 club option)
- Tyler O’Neill, OF: $16.5MM through 2027
- Ryan Helsley, RHP: $14MM player option for 2027
- Yennier Cano, RHP: $7.5MM through 2028 (includes 2029 club option)
Option Decisions
- Zach Eflin, RHP: $25MM mutual option with $2MM buyout
- Luis Robert Jr., OF: $20MM club option with $2MM buyout
- Ryan Helsley, RHP: $14MM player option for 2027
- Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: $7.5MM club option with no buyout
- Dietrich Enns, LHP: $3.5MM club option with $125K buyout
2027 financial commitments: $86.375MM
Total future commitments: $380.125MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Leody Taveras (5.031): $3.7MM
- Félix Bautista (5.000): $2.4MM
- Codi Heuer (4.059): $1.1MM
- Gunnar Henderson (4.036): $14.1MM
- Albert Suárez (3.159): $1.1MM
- Jordan Westburg (3.098): $1.5MM
- Colton Cowser (3.043): $2.2MM
Non-tender candidates: Taveras, Heuer, Suárez
Free Agents
The Orioles underwent a true tank job a few years ago. This was before the draft lottery, when a team could guarantee itself consecutive strong picks if they shamelessly committed to putting an atrocious product on the field. The Orioles did just that. They lost at least 108 games in each full season from 2018 to 2021. The hope with such a strategy is that all that losing can allow a team to stockpile enough young talent to slingshot them to future success.
It is surely not a coincidence that Mike Elias, who has been running the Baltimore front office since 2018, was previously with the Astros. Houston deployed this strategy very well. They lost at least 106 games from 2011 to 2013. They built up the farm, eventually put together a good major league team and have been consistently competitive from 2015 to the present.
Elias tried to bring that script to Baltimore and it appeared to be working not so long ago. The Orioles won 101 games in 2023 with a core consisting of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Colton Cowser, Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, Kyle Stowers, Heston Kjerstad and others. Prospects Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Connor Norby were looming in the minors. The Angelos family was in the process of selling the team to David Rubenstein. An optimist could have seen the foundation for a dynasty in place.
Things have been crumbling since then. The 2023 club was quickly swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers. The 2024 team regressed to 91 wins. That was enough for a Wild Card spot but the O’s were again swept out of the postseason, this time by the Royals. Baltimore has slid even farther lately, finishing below .500 in both 2025 and 2026.
Where are they now? Rutschman was traded to the division-rival Red Sox at the deadline. Basallo inherited the catcher-of-the-future mantle but hasn’t done much with it yet. Rodriguez was traded last winter for Taylor Ward, who was himself traded at the deadline. Hall and Ortiz were traded for Corbin Burnes, who left after one year. Stowers and Norby were traded for Trevor Rogers, who is now slated for free agency. Henderson has been more good than great lately. Westburg has been held back by injuries, missing the entire 2026 season. Bradish is fine but not too exciting. Cowser is a serviceable but flawed center fielder. Holliday is too young to be completely written off but hasn’t yet clicked in the majors. Kjerstad has mostly been injured and hasn’t performed when on the field.
Add it all up and the Orioles are in a tough spot. Elias can’t really justify a total teardown. There’s too much theoretical talent in place and the club has made notable financial commitments to Pete Alonso, Shane Baz, Bradish and Basallo. But just about every spot on the roster looks questionable or underwhelming. To be good again in 2027, they need a lot of things to go right internally, or a huge shake-up, or perhaps some combination.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
