JP Morgan sees copper prices at $11,000/mt in 2026, 10% tariffs by late 3Q25
Following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to order a national security probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports, the bank said it expects a tariff rate of at least 10% on refined copper and copper product imports to be enacted by late in the third quarter, with a significant risk of a higher tariff rate of 25%. The bank also forecast China's demand growth would slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, and added "this remains the greatest downside risk to our forecasted tightening in copper markets". The global refined copper market showed a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December, compared with a 124,000 metric ton deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) report showed.