Retirement Accumulation Strategies with Real Assets and Inflation Risk New publication from Amundi Investment Institute. With Benjamin Bruder, Camille Schittly, and Jiali Xu, we explore the optimal design of retirement solutions and glide paths. Over time, longevity has become a systemic risk for PAYG and DB pension plans, and an idiosyncratic risk for individuals. For example, life expectancy is projected to reach 82 years by 2100, up from 46 years in 1950. This increase has contributed to the growth of DC pension plans. Before individuals can effectively decumulate in retirement, they must first accumulate sufficient wealth, highlighting the central role of dynamic asset allocation in retirement planning. This paper provides both a theoretical framework, empirical insights and practical consideration. Here are the main key findings. First, the optimal allocation can be interpreted as a leveraged version of the constant-mix strategy, where human capital plays a key role in determining the leverage ratio. Understanding the human-to-financial capital ratio paves the way for personalized retirement solutions. Second, we solve a fundamental puzzle in retirement planning: Why do practitioners implement concave glide paths, even though theory predicts convex allocation patterns? Third, we identify the conditions under which the two-stage approach (combining Markowitz optimization with Merton leverage) produces the same solution as the multi-asset stochastic optimal control problem. Fourth, we compare glide path implementations using traditional assets with those that include real assets. Our results show that extending the investment universe to real assets adds value, even after accounting for transaction costs and liquidity risk management. Finally, we analyze retirement solutions under inflation risk, showing that the optimal dynamic solution consists of a performance portfolio and a liability-hedging portfolio. This aligns DC strategies with the liability-driven investment principles used by DB plans. Importantly, the hedging demand may be positive or negative depending on whether the objective function incorporates an inflation discounting component (reflecting the investor’s time horizon and myopia) and the correlation between assets and inflation. This analysis revisits the classic debate on inflation risk (expected vs. unexpected inflation, level vs. variability) and demonstrates how different inflation components influence dynamic asset allocation. While this paper is technical, we provide a 15-page non-technical introduction and conclusion that clearly summarize the main issues and key findings of the accumulation period. Here are the links to the paper: https://lnkd.in/ezvCAqSm https://lnkd.in/emPtHHTx https://lnkd.in/eSMSMSgD #retirement #assetallocation
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