Santitarn Sathirathai

📰 Summary Thailand’s Cabinet has cleared the way for a pilot “G-Token” issue—up to ฿5 billion (≈ US $150 m) in government-backed digital investment tokens that function like savings bonds but live on a blockchain. The Finance Ministry says retail investors will be able to subscribe for as little as ฿100 through licensed digital-asset exchanges, with the launch targeted “within the next two months,” i.e., around July–September 2025. Officials stress that G-Tokens are not cryptocurrency or legal tender; they sit inside the existing annual borrowing quota and already comply with Bank of Thailand rules. 🧠 Why it matters - Democratising the bond market: Tokenisation slashes the usual ฿1,000+ entry ticket for government bonds to a few hundred baht, courting Gen-Z savers who live on phones rather than bank branches. - Cheaper, faster funding: Issuing on-chain should cut printing, distribution and registrar costs, while near-instant settlement could deepen the secondary market and sharpen price discovery. - Reg-tech signal: By launching under the 2018 Digital-Asset Decree, Bangkok positions itself as a regulatory sandbox for real-world-asset tokenisation—a space Asia is now racing to capture. 🌏 Implications - For Thailand’s public debt playbook: If the pilot succeeds, larger tranches could follow, diversifying the investor base and nudging traditional banks and Primary Dealers to plug into digital rails. - For the digital-asset ecosystem: Exchanges gain a “safe asset” anchor product, potentially drawing cautious retail users onto their platforms and boosting overall liquidity. - Regional spill-over: The move echoes Hong Kong’s tokenised green bond and the Philippines’ retail e-bonds; ASEAN treasuries may feel pressure to match Thailand’s retail-first, blockchain-native approach. 🪞 Final thought A sovereign bond is as old-school as finance gets; wrapping it in a token is as new-school as it comes. If G-Token trades smoothly—and investors really can jump in with pocket-change capital—it could reset expectations for how governments tap the crowd. But success hinges on two quieter pieces: robust investor education and iron-clad cybersecurity. Would you buy a digital bond on your phone, or do you still prefer the old passbook at the bank? --- #Thailand #DigitalAsset #GToken #FinTech #GovernmentBonds #Blockchain #EconomicPolicy #RetailInvesting

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The selection and evaluation of individual funds has leaned heavily on qualitative judgments, as quantitative evaluations have largely relied on comparisons among similar funds based on a narrow set of metrics, such as internal rate of return (IRR) and investment multiples. With the new data infrastructure, GPIF said, it hopes to enhance confidence in obtaining excess returns.

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🧾 NaCGA: Thailand’s Credit Guarantee Reset 📰 Summary The Thai Cabinet has approved the draft bill to establish the National Credit Guarantee Agency (NaCGA). The agency will introduce risk-based credit guarantees in place of flat fees, issue guarantee certificates before borrowers approach banks, and gradually integrate the functions of the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation into a single entity. Initial capital will be ฿10 billion, funded through government support, guarantee fees, and contributions from financial institutions. A national credit-risk database will underpin underwriting decisions, drawing on both financial and alternative data sources. 🧠 Why It Matters - Expanded access to finance: Risk-based pricing reduces costs for reliable borrowers and widens opportunities for viable SMEs that have long struggled with collateral-heavy lending. - Aligned incentives: By limiting guarantees to partial coverage, NaCGA encourages both lenders and borrowers to uphold responsible credit practices. - Data-driven lending: A centralized risk database can reduce information asymmetry, accelerate loan approvals, and bring more micro-enterprises into the formal economy. 🌏 Implications For Thailand - SME growth & liquidity: Targeted credit expansion can strengthen SMEs in supply chains and services—key growth drivers. - Bank practices: With risk still shared, lenders must perform proper screening instead of relying on state backstops. - Public finance & governance: Credit guarantees are contingent liabilities; transparency, provisioning, and independent oversight will be critical. - Data ethics: Using alternative data demands strong safeguards to prevent bias, ensure fairness, and protect privacy. For International Stakeholders - Policy signal: Consolidating guarantees under NaCGA clarifies the state’s role in SME finance—reassuring for investors, DFIs, and rating agencies. - Partnership potential: Opportunities exist for co-risk-sharing, technical assistance on data governance, and integration with global best practices. 🪞 Final Thought NaCGA is a forward-looking reform—not a blank check. Its success will depend on balancing risk management, data governance, and fiscal discipline so that credit expansion translates into sustainable SME productivity. --- #SMEFinance #ThailandEconomy #CreditGuarantee #FinancialInclusion #PublicPolicy #DataGovernance #ThaiSMEs #เศรษฐกิจไทย #เอสเอ็มอี #นโยบายสาธารณะ Source (TH): https://lnkd.in/gTnwtxd7

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The IMF published today its annual report on China. While impressively resilient, IMF staff suggests that the current challenges faced by the Chinese economy will slow its growth and make the rebalancing of the economy towards local consumption-led growth ever more urgent. With a contribution of about 30% to global growth, this is also a global priority.

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" During the sector oversight committee meetings, when the financing needs of the utility was discussed, Pubudu noted that the 100% state owned transmission company plans to invest $ 5 billion in the next eight years, and these funds will be raised through DFIs he himself alienated – such as JICA and ADB3. Pubudu has also spoken of raising funds through AIIB, but appear to be ignoring the World Bank, who has the lowest cost of capital, giving highly concessional 30-40 year financing at 1-3% fixed interest rates! Pubudu’s investment “proposal” is strange for multiple reasons. First, the CEB’s latest transmission expansion plan (2023-2033), has put the investment need for the decade as Rs. 585 billion (approx. $ 2 billion), mere 40% of Pubudu’s number. Second, the combined DFI borrowing for the sector for the past decade has been just above $ 1 billion with ADB providing $ 850 million for various projects including $ 250 million for wind and solar and JICA providing $ 170 million. As for Pubudu’s favourite lender (and the most expensive), AIIB, their total lending to Sri Lanka for all sectors to date is mere $ 460 million with zero for power sector to date. Imagining they will scale 10 fold in the next eight years is simply improbable." https://lnkd.in/gT_Esq_N

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Sharing a timely Central Banking interview with Bank of Korea economists In Do Hwang and Boreum Kwak on Korea’s “super-ageing” challenge. They outline how rapid demographic shifts are likely to lower real rates, raise zero-lower-bound risks, dampen growth and inflation, and pressure bank capital, narrowing monetary policy space—underscoring the need for a coordinated mix of monetary, fiscal, structural, and macro-prudential policies to safeguard stability and lift potential growth. Worth a read for policymakers facing similar demographics.

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I spoke with Bloomberg’s Yvonne Man in Hong Kong on the ASEAN+3 economic outlook amid evolving trade developments. Key takeaways: • 2025 growth has been better than expected—supported by tech exports, less severe tariff outcomes, robust FDI into ASEAN, and policy support. • We expect growth to moderate next year given softer external demand due to tariff effects. • Yet the region remains resilient, with strong intra-ASEAN trade and continued high FDI commitments in ASEAN. Watch the full interview: https://lnkd.in/gc_Qmmxc

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The standard investment playbook is simple: chase high-growth companies with a clear path to profits. If a firm suddenly loses a multi-billion-dollar revenue stream, the usual advice is straightforward — sell. But with #Anthropic, the script has flipped. By sticking with a company effectively blacklisted by the Pentagon for being "too ethical" to support mass surveillance and warfare, Singapore’s sovereign wealth funds GIC and Temasek are making a decidedly non-consensus bet. It hints at something bigger: the definition of "growth" in the AI economy may be shifting. In the long run, the most valuable thing a company can do might simply be to walk away from the wrong kind of money. Will GIC and Temasek’s investments in blacklisted AI firm Anthropic backfire? The Business Times

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USTR in Malaysia on ASEAN trade negotiations: "We believe that there are many areas where our interests align, and we can work together to achieve shared goals of bringing reciprocity and balance to the global trading system." https://lnkd.in/g3mZPjpU

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In this new investigation Josephine Moulds and Nithin C. show that the same banks funding Indonesia's energy transition are also helping companies driving coal expansion in the country. HSBC, Standard Chartered, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America – which all joined Inedonesia's JETP – have helped raise almost $2bn for companies involved in coal expansion in the country. In partnership with Robert Soutar and The Bureau of Investigative Journalism and Climate Home News.

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Excited to share my latest piece for Trade Finance Global! I covered a really insightful panel from the BAFT Asia Bank-to-Bank Forum in Singapore, where experts from Wells Fargo, DBS, ADM, and EY discussed how ongoing geopolitical shifts and tensions are reshaping intra-Asia trade. 🔗 The article is linked in the comments, check it out!

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The Article 6.4 supervisory body (SB) approved the first request for issuance under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) on Thursday, February 26. Learn more from Fastmarkets: https://fmrkts.com/4soCkWY #Fastmarkets #carboncredits

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US banks' lending to non-banks, including investment funds, has doubled over the past two years to $1.7 trillion (approximately 260 trillion yen). This surge aims to secure high returns from mortgages and other robust non-bank sources. Non-banks, often referred to as shadow banks, operate under less stringent regulations compared to traditional banks. However, deterioration in management within these entities could pose a credit risk to banks, raising concerns for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and US regulatory authorities.

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🚫 Why Bank Negara Shouldn’t Rush Into Another Rate Cut Last Thursday, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) wrapped up its September Monetary Policy Committee meeting, keeping the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 2.75%, as widely expected. Back in July, BNM had already cut rates by 25 basis points. Moody’s analytic described that move as “pre-emptive”, a buffer against global economic headwinds. Looking at recent industrial output and export numbers—which came in stronger than expected—that call seems to have been the right one. But here’s the big question: Should Malaysia cut rates again? The answer depends heavily on the US Federal Reserve. If the Fed announces a rate cut in September, BNM would have more room to ease further. But if the Fed holds steady, a premature cut could expose Malaysia to fresh risks. 💸 Risks of Cutting Too Soon From my perspective, another rate cut this year is risky—unless the Fed surprises everyone with a drastic move. Two main risks stand out: 1️⃣ Pressure on the Ringgit A weaker ringgit would make imports more expensive, pushing inflation higher. Given Malaysia’s reliance on imported goods, consumers would feel the pinch immediately in their wallets. 2️⃣ Impact on Banks & The Stock Market Lower rates squeeze banks’ net interest margins (NIMs), reducing profitability. Even though major Malaysian banks posted resilient Q2 results, bank executives have warned that another rate cut will erode margins. Remember: bank stocks are heavyweight components of the FBM KLCI. If banks weaken, the index recovery will be even harder to achieve. With the KLCI already sluggish over the past year, another hit could make matters worse. ⚖️ Rate Cuts: A Double-Edged Sword Rate cuts can support growth—but they can also plant the seeds of instability if misused. Turkey offers a cautionary tale: its aggressive “rate-cut economics” led to a currency crash and runaway inflation, leaving its economy struggling to recover. That’s a road Malaysia must avoid. That’s why fiscal policy is the real game-changer. All eyes are now on the upcoming Budget 2026 in October. Whether it’s tax relief, infrastructure spending, or targeted support for households and businesses—fiscal measures will have a more direct impact on domestic demand. 🔑 Final Takeaway BNM’s decision to hold steady this round is a wise one. Instead of rushing into another cut, Malaysia should channel its resources into areas that truly drive growth. Interest rates are just one lever—but the real engines lie in fiscal and industrial policy. Now the spotlight shifts to the government: will the Budget deliver the boost the economy needs? Read my original article in Mandarin on enanyang.my https://lnkd.in/ghnDKfp8 #MalaysiaEconomy #BankNegara #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #Ringgit #BankingSector #KLCI #EmergingMarkets #ASEANFinance #Macroeconomics

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